Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 22

Date: 21 February 2023, Tuesday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)


	Hartlepool United		Newport County

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.1	2.2
	3.4	3.1	2.2
	3.4	3.2	2.15
	3.3	3.25	2.13
	3.69	3.11	2.27
	3.4	3.1	2.2
	3.44	3.24	2.18	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (3.18)	3.15 ↓ (3.19)	2.19 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
27.3%

Draw
29.8%

Newport County
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.5%

28.7%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	28.6%	61.9%

Hartlepool United - Newport County Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Newport will win (votes: 13 - 61.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newport: 41.1% – 82.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (40.08%), has project points - 38, has currently - 15, has a good chance of relegated (61%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Newport has the most likely position - 18 (9.59%), has project points - 55, has currently - 22, has a very small chance of relegated (5%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (4%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 6, importance 31, small match rating 18. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 1.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Hartlepool could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Newport will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
18.02.23	AFC Wimbledon - Hartlepool United	2:2 ✺
14.02.23	Crewe Alexandra - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
11.02.23	Hartlepool United - Sutton United	2:2 ✺
04.02.23	Doncaster Rovers - Hartlepool United	0:1 ✺
28.01.23	Hartlepool United - Colchester United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TLTWL
- Newport County
English League Two
18.02.23	Walsall - Newport County	1:1 ✺
14.02.23	Newport County - Stevenage Borough	2:2 ✺
11.02.23	Barrow - Newport County	0:1 ✺
04.02.23	Newport County - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
14.01.23	Carlisle United - Newport County	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 TTWWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
18.03.22	Newport County - Hartlepool United	2:3
12.11.21	Hartlepool United - Newport County	1:2
28.01.17	Newport County - Hartlepool United	3:1
27.08.16	Hartlepool United - Newport County	2:2
15.03.16	Newport County - Hartlepool United	0:0
18.08.15	Hartlepool United - Newport County	1:0
03.04.15	Newport County - Hartlepool United	2:2

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