The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Crewe Alexandra 41.4%
Draw 29.3%
Hartlepool United 29.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
48.8%
28.9%
22.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
50.2%
28.1%
21.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Crewe Alexandra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Crewe Alexandra's form might have worsened.
Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hartlepool United's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+8.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Crewe Alexandra, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (-7.5%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hartlepool United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
46.2%
23.1%
30.8%
Crewe Alexandra - Hartlepool United Predictions
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. Crewe will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Hartlepool will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Confidence interval (95%) for Crewe: 19.1% – 73.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 and 22).
Crewe has the most likely position - 20 (14.87%), has project points - 51, has currently - 32, has a small chance of relegated (7%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Hartlepool has the most likely position - 23 (29.7%), has project points - 41, has currently - 26, has a good chance of relegated (56%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has very small quality6, importance41, small match rating23. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Crewe won 1.
Crewe is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Hartlepool is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Hartlepool could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Crewe will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 6 head-to-head matches Crewe won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-12.
Including matches at home between the teams Crewe won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-4.
Watch
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