Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 32

Date: 14 February 2023, Tuesday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Yates O. (Eng)


	Newport County		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	2.88	3	2.7
	2.8	3.1	2.55
	2.75	3.2	2.55
	2.93	3.16	2.67
	2.88	3	2.6
	2.85	3.13	2.59	Watch
	2.8	2.95	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.88)	3.08 ↑ (2.9)	2.59 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
33.1%

Draw
30.6%

Stevenage Borough
36.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

32.1%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

31.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

The ML Model estimate for Stevenage Borough aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	30.8%	53.8%

Newport County - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Stevenage will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 30.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stevenage: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Newport has the most likely position - 17 (11.95%), has project points - 56, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (1%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Stevenage has the most likely position - 2 (28.92%), has project points - 85, has currently - 56, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (23%), has a good chance of promoted (77%), has a chance of win league (28%).

This event has small quality 11, importance 37, small match rating 24. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 3.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 18 head-to-head matches Newport won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 21-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
11.02.23	Barrow - Newport County	0:1 ✺
04.02.23	Newport County - Swindon Town	2:1 ✺
14.01.23	Carlisle United - Newport County	2:0 ✺
07.01.23	Rochdale - Newport County	1:1 ✺
02.01.23	Newport County - Crawley Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLTT
- Stevenage Borough
English League Two
11.02.23	Stevenage Borough - Bradford City	2:3 ✺
04.02.23	Sutton United - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
29.01.23	Stoke City - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
English League Two
21.01.23	Stevenage Borough - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
14.01.23	Harrogate Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
13.09.22	Stevenage Borough - Newport County	1:0
12.03.22	Stevenage Borough - Newport County	0:2
30.10.21	Newport County - Stevenage Borough	5:0
27.02.21	Newport County - Stevenage Borough	0:0
20.10.20	Stevenage Borough - Newport County	0:1
14.12.19	Newport County - Stevenage Borough	1:1
01.01.19	Stevenage Borough - Newport County	1:0

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