Match Info

Date: 15 April 2022, Friday


	Hartlepool United		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	5	3.25	1.85
	4.6	3.1	1.87
	4.9	3.05	1.85
	4.6	3.1	1.86
	5.18	3.25	1.87
	4.8	3	1.88
	5.05	3.32	1.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↑ (3.46)	3.15 ↑ (3.07)	1.87 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
19.4%

Draw
30%

Port Vale
50.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

30.9%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

31.4%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hartlepool United's form might have worsened.

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hartlepool United, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Hartlepool United - Port Vale Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Enjoy watching a meeting between a mid-table team and a leading team (ranked 13 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 13 (37.08%), has project points - 59, has currently - 53, has not chance of relegated, has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

Port Vale has the most likely position - 3 (37.86%), has project points - 80, has currently - 72, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (39%), has a good chance of promoted (69%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

This event has very small quality 9, importance 50, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Hartlepool is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Port Vale in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Hartlepool could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Port Vale will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
09.04.22	Forest Green Rovers - Hartlepool United	1:1 ✺
02.04.22	Hartlepool United - Salford City	0:2 ✺
29.03.22	Hartlepool United - Mansfield Town	2:2 ✺
26.03.22	Northampton Town - Hartlepool United	2:0 ✺
18.03.22	Newport County - Hartlepool United	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 TLTLW
- Port Vale
English League Two
09.04.22	Port Vale - Oldham Athletic	3:2 ✺
05.04.22	Salford City - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
02.04.22	Barrow - Port Vale	1:2 ✺
26.03.22	Port Vale - Sutton United	2:0 ✺
22.03.22	Port Vale - Exeter City	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
27.11.21	Port Vale - Hartlepool United	2:0
English FA Cup
04.12.16	Port Vale - Hartlepool United	4:0
English League Cup
12.08.14	Port Vale - Hartlepool United	6:2

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