Match Info

ENGLAND: LEAGUE TWO - ROUND 24

Date: 29 December 2022, Thursday

Location: Victoria Park (Hartlepool)

Referee: Coy M. (Eng)


	Hartlepool United		Mansfield Town

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.3	2.1
	3.6	3.2	2.05
	3.75	3.25	2
	3.55	3.15	2.08
	3.95	3.28	2.1
	3.6	3.25	2.05
	3.74	3.45	2.09	Watch
	3.55	3.1	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↓ (4)	3.25 ↓ (3.58)	2.07 ↑ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hartlepool United
25.6%

Draw
28.9%

Mansfield Town
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.4%

26.1%

50.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.2%

23.3%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hartlepool United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Mansfield Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mansfield Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hartlepool United than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Hartlepool United - Mansfield Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Hartlepool will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Mansfield will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mansfield: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 21 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs)).

Hartlepool has the most likely position - 24 (26.65%), has project points - 41, has currently - 18, has a chance of relegated (48%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Mansfield has the most likely position - 5 (8.73%), has project points - 70, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (33%), has a chance of promoted (18%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 7, importance 36, small match rating 22. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Mansfield will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Hartlepool won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 17-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Hartlepool won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hartlepool United
English League Two
26.12.22	Rochdale - Hartlepool United	1:2 ✺
09.12.22	Crawley Town - Hartlepool United	0:2 ✺
03.12.22	Hartlepool United - Stockport County	0:5 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Hartlepool United - Harrogate Town	3:1 ✺
English League Two
19.11.22	Barrow - Hartlepool United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WWLWL
- Mansfield Town
English League Two
26.12.22	Mansfield Town - Northampton Town	1:1 ✺
10.12.22	Stevenage Borough - Mansfield Town	0:0 ✺
03.12.22	Mansfield Town - Colchester United	2:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
30.11.22	Everton U21 - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
26.11.22	Sheffield Wednesday - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
30.09.22	Mansfield Town - Hartlepool United	2:2
29.03.22	Hartlepool United - Mansfield Town	2:2
26.12.21	Mansfield Town - Hartlepool United	3:2
11.02.17	Mansfield Town - Hartlepool United	4:0
17.09.16	Hartlepool United - Mansfield Town	0:0
02.04.16	Hartlepool United - Mansfield Town	2:1
21.11.15	Mansfield Town - Hartlepool United	3:1

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