Match Info

NETHERLANDS: KNVB BEKER - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 31 October 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Netherlands	ESPN
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Heerenveen		VVV-Venlo

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.75	8	Watch
	1.35	4.8	6.25	Watch
	1.42	5	6.5	Watch
	1.28	5.5	9.43
	1.36	4.6	6.5	Watch
	1.42	4.8	6.7	Watch
	1.4	4.8	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.66)	5.04 ↑ (3.9)	7.11 ↑ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heerenveen
68.3%

Draw
18.5%

VVV-Venlo
13.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

23.4%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.1%

22.5%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heerenveen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heerenveen's performance.

VVV-Venlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and VVV-Venlo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heerenveen than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heerenveen that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for VVV-Venlo than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that VVV-Venlo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.3%	0%	7.7%

Heerenveen - VVV Venlo Predictions

Users Predictions: Heerenveen will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.83% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. van der Hart M. (G) 15. Ali H. 4. van Beek S. (C) 5. Bochniewicz P. 7. Kohlert M. 26. Tahiri A. 33. Haye T. 24. Walemark P. 28. Brouwers L. 19. Olsson S. 11. van Amersfoort P.	1. de Boer J. (G) 2. Lathouwers R. 3. Janssen R. 4. Ketting R. (C) 5. Janssen S. 12. Kluskens J. 14. Smans L. 8. Sierra E. 44. Kaastrup M. 9. Kosidis M. 7. Allouch S.
Substitutes
23. Bekkema J. (G) 45. Braude O. 2. Hall D. 9. Karlsbakk D. S. 44. Noppert A. (G) 17. Nunnely C. 21. Nunumete D. 40. van Ee E. 6. van Ottele S. 14. Webster C. 38. Witteveen M.	17. Berden M. 30. Craenmehr J. (G) 19. Dirks S. 18. Doesburg P. 32. Hegi M. 15. Henderikx S. 16. Klaasen R. 24. Odriss M. 21. Rutten M. 22. Schrick T. (G) 13. Sedlacek R. 20. Timber D.
Coaches
Van Wonderen K.	Kruys R.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Heerenveen won 2.

Heerenveen is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Venlo is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Venlo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Heerenveen is a favorite.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Heerenveen won 5 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 21-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Heerenveen won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 13-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Heerenveen
Dutch Eredivisie
28.10.23	Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo	3:0 ✺
21.10.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heerenveen	3:0 ✺
07.10.23	Heerenveen - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
30.09.23	Twente - Heerenveen	1:0 ✺
23.09.23	Heerenveen - Excelsior	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLTLL
- VVV-Venlo
Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.10.23	ADO Den Haag - VVV-Venlo	2:2 ✺
20.10.23	Den Bosch - VVV-Venlo	1:2 ✺
14.10.23	VVV-Venlo - Roda	1:1 ✺
06.10.23	Jong Ajax - VVV-Venlo	3:0 ✺
01.10.23	VVV-Venlo - Helmond Sport	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
17.01.21	VVV-Venlo - Heerenveen	1:1
26.09.20	Heerenveen - VVV-Venlo	1:0
08.02.20	Heerenveen - VVV-Venlo	1:1
28.09.19	VVV-Venlo - Heerenveen	0:3
23.04.19	Heerenveen - VVV-Venlo	2:2
01.09.18	VVV-Venlo - Heerenveen	1:1
14.04.18	VVV-Venlo - Heerenveen	0:2

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