Match Info

Date: 22 October 2020, Thursday


	Hoffenheim		Crvena Zvezda Belgrade

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.33	5.75
	1.57	4.2	5.75
	1.6	4	5.75
	1.61	4.1	4.9
	1.63	3.99	5.74
	1.6	4	5.5
	1.64	4.33	5.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.43)	4.14 ↓ (4.75)	5.55 ↓ (6.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hoffenheim
59.7%

Draw
23.1%

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

19.9%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

78.1%

16.9%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hoffenheim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hoffenheim's form might have worsened.

Crvena Zvezda Belgrade has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (+18.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hoffenheim, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.2%	8.3%	30.6%

Hoffenheim - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade Predictions

Users Predictions: 121 users predict this event. Hoffenheim will win (votes: 74 - 61.2%). Crvena Zvezda will win (votes: 37 - 30.6%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 52.5% – 69.9%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Hoffenheim has a good chance of round of 32 (84%), has a chance of round of 16 (46%), has a chance of qtrs (22%), has a small chance of semis (10%), has a very small chance of final (4%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Crvena Zvezda has a good chance of round of 32 (56%), has a chance of round of 16 (17%), has a very small chance of qtrs (5%), has a very small chance of semis (1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Recent matches Hoffenheim is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Crvena Zvezda is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Hoffenheim is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
17.10.20	Hoffenheim - Borussia Dortmund	0:1 ✺
03.10.20	Eintracht Frankfurt - Hoffenheim	2:1 ✺
27.09.20	Hoffenheim - Bayern Munich	4:1 ✺
19.09.20	Köln - Hoffenheim	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
13.09.20	Chemnitzer - Hoffenheim	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.9 LLWWW
- FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade
Serbian Superliga
18.10.20	Partizan - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:1 ✺
04.10.20	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Napredak Kruševac	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
01.10.20	Ararat-Armenia - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:2 ✺
Serbian Superliga
26.09.20	Mladost Lučani - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:4 ✺
20.09.20	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Voždovac	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWWWW

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