Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Holstein-Stadion (Kiel)

Referee: Prigan F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 9
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Iceland	Viaplay
Italy	Sky Sport 257, Sky Sport Uno
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2, Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Holstein Kiel		Darmstadt

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.45	3.5	2.7
	2.42	3.4	2.68
	2.48	3.63	2.86
	2.24	3.52	3.00	Watch
				Watch
	2.41	3.48	2.7	Watch
	2.49	3.5	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.15)	3.5 ↑ (3.4)	2.77 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Holstein Kiel
39%

Draw
26.9%

Darmstadt
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

27.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

26.5%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Darmstadt has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Holstein Kiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Darmstadt than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.6%	27.8%	66.7%

Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 1 - 5.6%). Darmstadt will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 27.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Darmstadt: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Holstein Kiel (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Darmstadt will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Darmstadt (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Krumrey J. (G) 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 11. Bernhardsson A. 15. Davidsen K. 24. Knudsen M. 47. Tolkin J. 20. Kapralik A. 7. Skrzybski S. (C) 19. Harres P.	1. Schuhen M. (C) 2. Lopez S. 6. Pfeiffer P. 20. Vukotic A. 15. Nurnberger F. 23. Richter M. 10. Boetius J-P. 16. Akiyama H. 34. Corredor K. 7. Lidberg I. 9. Hornby F.
Substitutes
6. Ivezic M. 25. Muller M. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Schwab S. 10. Therkelsen J. 39. Wagner R. 1. Weiner T. (G)	27. Bialek B. 30. Brunst A. (G) 44. Furukawa Y. 32. Holland F. 3. Klassen L. 19. Lakenmacher F. 5. Maglica M. 8. Marseiler L. 21. Papela M.
Coaches
Rapp M.	Kohfeldt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
5', Nurnberger F. ↓, Klassen L. ↑,
34', Johansson C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 0 - 1, Lidberg I. ⚽, Richter M. (A),
57', Schuhen M. 🟨,
62', Knudsen M. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
62', Tolkin J. ↓, Niehoff N. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Zec D. ⚽, Bernhardsson A. (A),
69', Richter M. ↓, Maglica M. ↑,
69', Boetius J-P. ↓, Papela M. ↑,
74', Bernhardsson A. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
87', Harres P. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
87', Skrzybski S. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
90+2', Lopez S. ↓, Marseiler L. ↑,
90+2', Lidberg I. ↓, Bialek B. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 1.

Recent performances by Holstein Kiel have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Darmstadt is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Holstein Kiel may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Cvjetinovic M. (Ankle Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Darmstadt: Bader M. (Knee Injury) Will P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Darmstadt: Nurnberger F. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.3:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Holstein Kiel
German 2 Bundesliga
27.09.25	Elversberg - Holstein Kiel	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Holstein Kiel - Karlsruher	3:0 ✺
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Holstein Kiel - Hannover	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWTL
- SV Darmstadt 98
German 2 Bundesliga
26.09.25	Darmstadt - Dynamo Dresden	2:0 ✺
21.09.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Darmstadt	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Darmstadt - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Kaiserslautern - Darmstadt	3:1 ✺
24.08.25	Darmstadt - Hertha Berlin	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
06.01.24	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	1:2
German 2 Bundesliga
30.04.23	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	0:3
21.10.22	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	1:1
02.04.22	Darmstadt - Holstein Kiel	3:1
23.10.21	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	1:1
23.05.21	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	2:3
German DFB Pokal
02.02.21	Holstein Kiel - Darmstadt	2:1 penalties

Upcoming Matches