Match Info

Championship - Round 25

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: MKM Stadium (Hull)

Referee: Pawson C. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Hull City		Stoke City

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.28	3.36	3.16	Watch
	2.27	3.38	3.16	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3.1
	2.25	3.3	3.53	Watch
	2.22	3.33	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.51)	3.3 ↓ (3.37)	3.26 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hull City
42.2%

Draw
28.8%

Stoke City
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.1%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

28.1%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hull City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Stoke City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stoke City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hull City than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stoke City than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stoke City could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.1%	6.8%	9.1%

Hull City - Stoke City Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Hull will win (votes: 37 - 86%). Stoke will win (votes: 4 - 9.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 4.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hull: 75.6% – 96.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Hull (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Hull (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Hull (votes: 9 - 75%). Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pandur I. (G) 2. Coyle L. (C) 15. Egan J. 4. Hughes C. 23. Famewo A. 25. Crooks M. 27. Slater R. 22. Joseph K. 24. Gyabi D. 7. Millar L. 9. McBurnie O.	25. Simkin T. (G) 40. Talovierov M. 26. Phillips A. 16. Wilmot B. (C) 23. Gibson B. 18. Lawal B. 19. Rigo T. 29. Cisse L. 10. Bae J. 7. Thomas S. 11. Bozenik R.
Substitutes
11. Akintola B. 43. Ashbee S. 39. Destan E. 3. Furlong J. 20. Hadziahmetovic A. 58. McCarthy C. 19. Ndala J. 45. Palmer K. 12. Phillips D. (G)	. Agina S. 53. Bickerton J. 13. Bonham J. (G) . Fawunmi F. 20. Gallagher S. 42. Manhoef M. 9. Mubama D. 15. N'Zonzi S. 12. Seko T.
Coaches
Jakirovic S.	Robins M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
22', Crooks M. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Bozenik R. ⚽,
45+1', Slater R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Joseph K. ↓, Ndala J. ↑,
54', Bozenik R. ↓, Gallagher S. ↑,
69', Bae J. 🟨,
73', Famewo A. ↓, Palmer K. ↑,
73', Gyabi D. ↓, Destan E. ↑,
82', Ndala J. 🟨,
89', Slater R. ↓, Hadziahmetovic A. ↑,
89', Millar L. ↓, Akintola B. ↑,
90+4', Talovierov M. 🟨,
90+6', Cisse L. ↓, Manhoef M. ↑,
90+6', Rigo T. ↓, Seko T. ↑,
90+13', Lawal B. ↓, N'Zonzi S. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hull won 3.

Hull has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Stoke is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Hull: Ajayi S. (International duty) Matazo E. (Knee Injury) Williams B. (Inactive)

There will not play in Stoke: Baker L. (Ankle Injury) Bocat E. (Inactive) Cresswell A. (Injury) Pearson B. (Red Card) Tchamadeu J. (International duty)

There are questionable in Hull: Giles R. (Injury) Lundstram J. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hull won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 18:31. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Hull won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 6:13. (average 0.7:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Stoke	8	4	1	3	13:12	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Stoke City - the odds 2.76 are the expected chance of winning is 34.26%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hull City
English League Championship
29.12.25	Middlesbrough - Hull City	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Hull City	2:2 ✺
20.12.25	Hull City - West Bromwich Albion	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Millwall - Hull City	1:3 ✺
10.12.25	Hull City - Wrexham	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 WTWWW
- Stoke City
English League Championship
29.12.25	Stoke City - Sheffield United	1:2 ✺
26.12.25	Stoke City - Preston North End	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Watford - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Stoke City - Swansea City	2:1 ✺
10.12.25	Ipswich Town - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
29.11.25	Stoke City - Hull City	1:2
01.02.25	Hull City - Stoke City	1:2
20.09.24	Stoke City - Hull City	1:3
29.03.24	Hull City - Stoke City	0:2
24.09.23	Stoke City - Hull City	1:3
11.02.23	Stoke City - Hull City	0:0
13.09.22	Hull City - Stoke City	0:3

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