Match Info

Kansallinen Liiga Women - Championship Group

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tammelan Stadion (Tampere) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	15:00	Ruutu+


	Ilves		HPS

	1	X	2
	3.80	4.20	1.61
	3.65	4.00	1.66
	4.23	4.44	1.53
	4.25	4.39	1.59	Watch
	4.15	4.35	1.51
	3.83	4.49	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.99 ↑ (3.65)	4.31 ↑ (4)	1.6 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ilves
22.6%

Draw
20.9%

HPS
56.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

24.3%

22.2%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.6%

21.6%

54.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

HPS has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HPS than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Ilves - HPS Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Korpi J. (G) 21. Ahonen H. 2. Hakola L. 3. Italinna E. 56. Lilja T. 8. Ljesnjanin A. 13. Luotonen A. 22. Olmala H. 4. Pirila R. 18. Pulkkinen E. 14. Rasinen A. (C)	1. Roine V. (G) 12. Kamppi P. 8. Kinnunen A. 24. Nurminen M. 11. Paakkari E. 14. Perttula T. 21. Puolakka L. 9. Rinkinen H. 16. Simonen A. (C) 17. Sinivuori F. 19. Stark T.
Substitutes
20. Fomenko W. 41. Jamsa M. 40. Juvonen K. 19. Kallio I. 11. Lahteenmaki L. 31. Maki-Kamppi V. (G) 17. Tarkkanen A.	20. Jaaskelainen O. 7. Kahre O. 2. Kataja M. 13. Kohtamaki A. 23. Korpela T. (G) 29. Lamberg A. 15. Oksanen V. 77. Punsar M. 26. Talka M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', Perttula T. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Perttula T. ⚽, Stark T. (A),
36', 0 - 2, Simonen A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
61', Rinkinen H. ↓, Kahre O. ↑,
61', Perttula T. ↓, Jaaskelainen O. ↑,
61', Sinivuori F. ↓, Lamberg A. ↑,
63', 0 - 3, Kahre O. ⚽,
64', Ljesnjanin A. ↓, Tarkkanen A. ↑,
64', Rasinen A. ↓, Fomenko W. ↑,
64', Olmala H. ↓, Lahteenmaki L. ↑,
77', Nurminen M. 🟨,
77', Paakkari E. ↓, Talka M. ↑,
77', Stark T. ↓, Punsar M. ↑,
84', Pirila R. ↓, Kallio I. ↑,
84', Luotonen A. ↓, Jamsa M. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 4, Punsar M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ilves won 2.

Recent results have been tough for Ilves (last 5 matches: 1 win).

HPS shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

HPS may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

HPS carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Ilves has recorded 7 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 21:14 (averaging 1.6:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ilves against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 10:3 goals (averaging 1.7:0.5 per game).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	HPS W	24	14	5	5	42:25	17	47
5	Ilves W	24	8	3	13	42:52	-10	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ilves Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
03.10.26	Ilves - KuPS	3:3 ✺
26.09.26	Gnistan - Ilves	0:3 ✺
19.09.26	Ilves - Åland United	2:3 ✺
12.09.26	Ilves - HJK	2:5 ✺
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TWLLL
- Helsingin Palloseura Women
Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
04.10.26	HJK - HPS	2:3 ✺
26.09.26	HPS - Åland United	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	KuPS - HPS	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Gnistan - HPS	1:3 ✺
Finnish Cup Women
06.09.26	HPS - HJK	1:3 AET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Kansallinen Liiga Women
29.08.26	HPS - Ilves	1:0
25.07.26	HPS - Ilves	1:2
22.05.26	Ilves - HPS	1:0
31.08.24	HPS - Ilves	1:0
09.06.24	Ilves - HPS	0:2
26.08.23	Ilves - HPS	0:1
10.06.23	HPS - Ilves	1:1

Ilves - HPS