Match Info

Torneo Federal - Losers stage - Round 3

Date: 12 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Raul Orlando Lungarzo (Chivilcoy)


	Independiente Chivilcoy		Sarmiento de Resistencia

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.50	6.25
	1.45	3.55	6.9
	1.5	3.46	7.07
	1.51	3.67	7.51	Watch
	1.45	3.4	7
	1.53	3.61	7.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.76)	3.53 ↑ (3.15)	6.99 ↑ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Chivilcoy
61.2%

Draw
25.8%

Sarmiento de Resistencia
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

28.4%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

27.1%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Chivilcoy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Chivilcoy's performance.

Sarmiento de Resistencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sarmiento de Resistencia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Chivilcoy than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Independiente Chivilcoy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarmiento de Resistencia than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sarmiento de Resistencia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Independiente Chivilcoy - Sarmiento de Resistencia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cordero M. (G) 5. D'Annunzio N. 11. Funes F. 4. Gimenez R. 6. Hernandez Castro T. J. 9. Luciano 10. Perez F. 8. Ramirez U. 7. Retamozo L. 3. Torres D. 2. Vera A.	1. Gonzalez D. (G) 8. Almiron C. 2. Dominguez F. 3. Franco N. 6. Gimenez C. 9. Ibanez M. 10. Maidana C. 5. Martinez P. 11. Molina J. 7. Pared M. 4. Ulibarri G.
Substitutes
20. Berrutti B. 15. Borgognoni G. 13. Caceres E. 16. Mast T. 14. Mendoza D. 17. Mercado L. 12. Posik I. (G) 19. Rodriguez L. 18. Soriano V.	12. Acuna D. (G) 15. Alarcon G. 18. Arzamendia R. 14. Barlessi L. 13. Derewicki J. 16. Di Buo I. 20. Genolet L. 17. Martinez D. 19. Moreyra P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Molina J. ⚽,
32', 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Luciano (Penalty Awarded),
37', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
39', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
66', 🟨,
83', 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Ibanez M. ⚽,

Preview

Ind Chivilcoy is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Sarmiento has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ind Chivilcoy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ind Chivilcoy is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ind Chivilcoy won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Chivilcoy
Argentinian Torneo Federal
08.08.26	Boca Unidos - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:1 ✺
26.07.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Sportivo Las Parejas	1:1 ✺
12.07.26	El Linqueño - Independiente Chivilcoy	2:1 ✺
05.07.26	Sportivo Belgrano - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:1 ✺
28.06.26	Independiente Chivilcoy - Douglas Haig	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTLTL
- Sarmiento de Resistencia
Argentinian Torneo Federal
08.08.26	Sarmiento de Resistencia - Atlético Escobar	0:1 ✺
03.08.26	Defensores de Vilelas - Sarmiento de Resistencia	4:1 ✺
26.07.26	Sarmiento de Resistencia - Sol de América de Formosa	2:1 ✺
05.07.26	Boca Unidos - Sarmiento de Resistencia	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Sarmiento de Resistencia - Tucuman Central	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
15.09.24	Sarmiento de Resistencia - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:1

Independiente Chivilcoy - Sarmiento de Resistencia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide