Match Info

Liga Women - Round 12

Date: 24 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Sur (Envigado)


	Independiente Medellín		Orsomarso

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.25	4.75
	1.67	3.5	4.86
	1.69	3.38	4.82	Watch
	1.67	3.2	4.6
	1.68	3.42	4.69
	1.76	3.05	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.57)	3.3 ↓ (3.4)	4.59 ↓ (6.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Independiente Medellín
53.2%

Draw
27.2%

Orsomarso
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

27%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

27%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Medellín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente Medellín's form might have worsened.

Orsomarso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orsomarso's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orsomarso, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Independiente Medellín - Orsomarso Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Orsomarso (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Orsomarso (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Candanoza V. (G) 25. Cardona M. 5. Torres M. 13. Doria Y. 6. Alvarez S. (C) 8. Toledo M. 10. Gonzalez A. 18. Munera M. 4. Correa M. 11. Castillo V. 7. Hurtado M.	1. Agamez D. (G) 18. Hernandez H. 2. Iglesias A. (C) 4. Vergara M. 23. Goyes V. 9. Macias P. 20. Cassiani Y. 14. Rivera T. 17. Acevedo L. 6. Tenorio K. 24. Lasso Sanchez B.
Substitutes
19. Agudelo E. 21. Arias K. 23. Largo E. 17. Patino S. 3. Ramirez V. 14. Rangel N. 2. Sastoque M. 15. Tangarife V. 22. Tejada M. (G)	25. Aguilar M. 7. Asprilla F. 12. Duque M. (G) 8. Garcia H. 11. Mendivelso N. 10. Sanchez S. 16. Torres H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', Acevedo L. 🟨,
6', 1 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Castillo V. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Women (Promotion Group: ) and 10).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Ind Medellín is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Ind Medellín won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Ind Medellín won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Medellín Women
Colombian Liga Women
17.05.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
10.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Bucaramanga	3:0 ✺
01.05.26	Atlético Nacional - Independiente Medellín	1:0 ✺
28.04.26	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	3:0 ✺
15.04.26	Junior Barranquilla - Independiente Medellín	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLWL
- Orsomarso SC Women
Colombian Liga Women
17.05.26	Orsomarso - Inter Bogotá	1:2 ✺
11.05.26	Once Caldas - Orsomarso	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Orsomarso - Inter Palmira	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Orsomarso - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Orsomarso	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Liga Women
23.08.25	Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín	2:2
09.08.25	Independiente Medellín - Orsomarso	0:3
15.03.25	Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín	0:1
27.02.22	Orsomarso - Independiente Medellín	0:1

Independiente Medellín - Orsomarso: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide