Match Info

Date: 31 August 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Independiente del Valle		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	5	Watch
	1.73	3.4	5
	1.7	3.5	4.8
	1.73	3.4	4.8
	1.75	3.51	5.2
	1.7	3.2	5	Watch
	1.75	3.52	4.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.69)	3.45 ↓ (3.57)	4.96 ↑ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

Watch this match and Copa Sudamericana with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: beIN SPORTS (Canada)

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
54%

Draw
27.1%

FBC Melgar
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

25.9%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

25.5%

18.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

The ML Model estimate for FBC Melgar aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
59.1%	31.8%	9.1%

Independiente del Valle - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 13 - 59.1%). Melgar will win (votes: 2 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ind del Valle: 38.6% – 79.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

1st leg.

Independiente del Valle is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Melgar is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Independiente del Valle could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Independiente del Valle is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Independiente del Valle to win the game is with odds 1.73.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Independiente del Valle won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Independiente del Valle won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
28.08.22	Independiente del Valle - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	1:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
25.08.22	Mushuc Runa - Independiente del Valle	2:4 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.08.22	Guayaquil City - Independiente del Valle	0:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
19.08.22	Independiente del Valle - El Nacional	3:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.08.22	Independiente del Valle - Gualaceo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWW
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
26.08.22	FBC Melgar - Universidad San Martín	2:1 ✺
21.08.22	Carlos Stein - FBC Melgar	0:2 ✺
15.08.22	FBC Melgar - Cantolao	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
11.08.22	Internacional RS - FBC Melgar	0:1 penalties ✺
04.08.22	FBC Melgar - Internacional RS	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
15.03.16	Independiente del Valle - FBC Melgar	2:0
01.03.16	FBC Melgar - Independiente del Valle	0:1

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