Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 6

Date: 27 May 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports, Mi Telefe, Telefe
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bolivia	ESPN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	ESPN
Germany	Magenta Sport, Sportdigital1+
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Ukraine	Maincast Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Onefootball, Pluto TV


	Independiente del Valle		Rosario Central

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.1	3.5	Watch
	1.83	3.5	4.2
	2.12	2.98	3.7	Watch
	2.19	3.1	3.64
	1.91	3.42	4.12	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.16	3.32	3.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.79)	3.2 ↓ (3.42)	3.74 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
45.4%

Draw
29.4%

Rosario Central
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27%

21.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

26.1%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente del Valle's form might have worsened.

Rosario Central has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente del Valle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rosario Central than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	41.7%	33.3%

Independiente del Valle - Rosario Central Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Rosario will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 13.8% – 69.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 23. Viacava J. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 17. Rodriguez A. 53. Lerma J. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 31. Pata E. 9. Gonzalez C.	23. Ledesma C. (G) 32. Coronel E. 15. Mallo Blanco F. 46. Ovando I. 33. Soto A. 5. Ibarra F. 20. Pizarro V. 18. Fernandez J. 11. Di Maria A. (C) 8. Campaz J. 22. Copetti E.
Substitutes
50. Angulo J. 12. Bores E. (G) 16. Briones R. 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 20. Gomez A. 18. Gongora S. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 11. Perello M. 99. Reasco D. 33. Velasco A.	1. Broun J. (G) 7. Cabrera M. 26. Cantizano G. 37. Duarte L. 28. Fernandez P. 16. Gimenez E. 31. Navarro F. 14. Oviedo A. 39. Oviedo F. 47. Raffin L. 29. Ruben M. 42. Veron E.
Coaches
Papa J.	Almiron J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Copetti E. 🟨,
45+5', Sornoza J. 🟨,
45+5', Di Maria A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Fernandez J. ↓, Gimenez E. ↑,
58', Di Maria A. ↓, Fernandez P. ↑,
64', 1 - 0, Sornoza J. (Penalty Awarded),
66', Fernandez P. 🟨,
79', Pizarro V. ↓, Ruben M. ↑,
80', Campaz J. ↓, Cantizano G. ↑,
80', Lerma J. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
80', Pata E. ↓, Perello M. ↑,
82', Carabajal M. ↓, Velasco A. ↑,
89', Coronel E. ↓, Duarte L. ↑,
90+2', Rodriguez A. ↓, Gongora S. ↑,
90+3', Sornoza J. ↓, Ochoa Y. ↑,
90+4', Ovando I. 🟨,

Preview

Ind del Valle is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Rosario is Qualified for Copa Libertadores (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Ind del Valle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Rosario has had a series of home games.

In this match, Ind del Valle is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Knee Injury) Cazares (Knee Injury) Mercado P. (Knee Injury) Pombo J. (Shoulder Injury) Schunke R. (Knee Injury) Villar G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Rosario: Duarte G. (Injury) Duarte L. (Injury) Gimenez J. (Knee Injury) Komar J. (Heart Problems) Sandez A. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Rosario: Mallo Blanco F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ind del Valle won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Outrights of Copa Libertadores for now

Rosario Central: 2.39%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
22.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Loja	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Libertad Asuncion	4:1 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Super Cup
13.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWWW
- Rosario Central
Copa Libertadores
19.05.26	Rosario Central - Universidad Central	4:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.05.26	River Plate - Rosario Central	1:0 ✺
13.05.26	Rosario Central - Racing	2:1 ET ✺
10.05.26	Rosario Central - Independiente	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Rosario Central - Independiente del Valle	0:0

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