Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 19 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Banco Guayaquil (Quito)

Referee: Daronco A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Bolivia	ESPN 2, ESPN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
Chile	Disney+, ESPN 5
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ecuador	ESPN 2
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Paraguay	ESPN 2
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter


	Independiente del Valle		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9.5	Watch
	1.32	4.95	9.3	Watch
	1.33	5.52	9.52
	1.33	5.28	8.79	Watch
	1.3	4.8	8.5
	1.33	5.55	9.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↓ (1.41)	5.18 ↑ (4.87)	9.12 ↑ (6.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente del Valle
71.4%

Draw
18.2%

Libertad Asuncion
10.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

19.4%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.3%

18.5%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Independiente del Valle - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Quintana A. (G) 13. Romero Padilla D. A. 14. Carabajal M. 23. Viacava J. 19. Loor L. 6. Alcivar J. 17. Rodriguez A. 53. Lerma J. 10. Sornoza J. (C) 31. Pata E. 9. Gonzalez C.	25. Gonzalez A. (G) 3. Rojas R. 31. Fernandez T. 5. Viera D. 4. Gimenez N. 28. Fernandez M. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. 14. Fretes A. 8. Carrizo F. 10. Melgarejo L. (C)
Substitutes
50. Angulo J. 12. Bores E. (G) 16. Briones R. 15. Cortez G. 4. Espinoza J. 20. Gomez A. 55. Guagua D. 32. Mendez J. 8. Ochoa Y. 11. Perello M. 99. Reasco D. 33. Velasco A.	11. Aguilar G. 37. Bernal J. 13. Bogarin J. 26. Caballero H. 40. Herrera F. 33. Martinez C. 22. Martinez H. 27. Molinas A. 19. Recalde J. 29. Rojas V. (G) 30. Vera O. R. 24. Villalba R.
Coaches
Papa J.	Samudio J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
38', 1 - 0, Sornoza J. ⚽,
43', 2 - 0, Gonzalez C. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A),
45+3', 2 - 1, Melgarejo L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rojas R. ↓, Bernal J. ↑,
64', 3 - 1, Lerma J. ⚽,
66', Fretes A. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
66', Carrizo F. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
68', Aguilar G. 🟨,
73', Fernandez T. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
74', Lerma J. ↓, Briones R. ↑,
79', Fernandez M. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
81', Pata E. ↓, Perello M. ↑,
81', Sornoza J. ↓, Ochoa Y. ↑,
84', Alcivar J. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
84', Gonzalez C. ↓, Reasco D. ↑,
90+5', 4 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Perello M. (A),

Preview

Ind del Valle is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Libertad's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Libertad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ind del Valle has had a series of away games.

In this match, Ind del Valle is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Ind del Valle: Arroyo J. P. (Inactive) Cazares (Injury) Mercado P. (Injury) Pombo J. (Shoulder Injury) Schunke R. (Inactive) Villar G. (Injury)

There will not play in Libertad: Benitez A. (Inactive) Duarte A. (Inactive) Fernandez H. (Injury)

We predict that Ind del Valle will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ind del Valle won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
16.05.26	Deportivo Macará - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Super Cup
13.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	0:3 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.05.26	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Universidad Central - Independiente del Valle	2:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
01.05.26	Universidad Católica del Ecuador - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WWWLW
- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
14.05.26	Libertad Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Libertad Asuncion	2:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Rosario Central - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.05.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
28.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Independiente del Valle	2:3

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