Match Info

HNL - Round 27

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Aldo Drosina (Pula)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Croatia	MAX Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1


	Istra 1961		Varaždin

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.9	2.75
	2.58	3	2.82
	2.68	3.05	2.94
	2.58	2.97	2.95	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.7
	2.7	3.01	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.3)	2.97 ↓ (3.18)	2.84 ↓ (2.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Istra 1961
35.8%

Draw
31.4%

Varaždin
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

29%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

27.7%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Istra 1961 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Varaždin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istra 1961 than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Istra 1961, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varaždin than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	33.3%	8.3%

Istra 1961 - Varaždin Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Istra 1961 will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Varaždin will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Istra 1961: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kolic F. (G) 97. Kadusic A. 3. Nasraoui M. 38. Kumar R. 26. Heister M. 23. Stulac L. 5. Radosevic J. (C) 17. Frederiksen E. 10. Loncar S. 11. Gorican S. 9. Prevljak S.	1. Zelenika O. (C) 23. Maglica F. 14. Puncec R. 4. Skaricic L. 20. Sikosek G. 8. Duvnjak T. 7. Vuk M. 22. Mamic L. 28. Canjuga I. 38. Tavares I. 10. Latkovic A.
Substitutes
77. Agada C. 20. Ahmeti D. 25. Albarracin G. 18. Ayuma I. 44. Hrvatin R. 16. Miettinen S. 29. Obando A. 40. Paus-Kunst J. (G) 7. Rozic V. 15. Sama E. 30. Skafar Zuzic N. 24. Taraba F.	12. Bockaj P. 25. Borsic A. 2. Lesjak S. 24. Marina M. 13. Mladenovski M. 18. Paizinho 30. Posinkovic L. 6. Puclin D. 33. Silic J. (G) 16. Tepsic N.
Coaches
Riera O.	Safaric N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Latkovic A. ⚽, Maglica F. (A),
27', Radosevic J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Tavares I. ↓, Borsic A. ↑,
46', Gorican S. ↓, Rozic V. ↑,
46', Loncar S. ↓, Ahmeti D. ↑,
62', Sikosek G. ↓, Mladenovski M. ↑,
69', Stulac L. ↓, Obando A. ↑,
69', Latkovic A. ↓, Marina M. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Heister M. ⚽,
80', 2 - 1, Radosevic J. ⚽,
81', Frederiksen E. ↓, Ayuma I. ↑,
83', Canjuga I. ↓, Bockaj P. ↑,
84', Puncec R. ↓, Paizinho ↑,
86', Prevljak S. ↓, Taraba F. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 2.

Istra 1961 is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Varaždin has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Varaždin has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Varaždin: Barac M. (Inactive) Ilinkovic S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Istra 1961 won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Istra 1961 won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 0.9:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Varazdin	8	4	3	1	13:7	6	15
6	Istra 1961	9	3	3	3	17:14	3	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Istra 1961
Croatian HNL
15.03.26	Rijeka - Istra 1961	0:2 ✺
06.03.26	Istra 1961 - Osijek	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Slaven Belupo - Istra 1961	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Istra 1961 - Gorica	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Istra 1961	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLLLL
- NK Varaždin
Croatian HNL
13.03.26	Varaždin - Vukovar 91	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Lokomotiva Zagreb - Varaždin	1:1 ✺
Croatian Cup
04.03.26	Varaždin - Gorica	1:3 ✺
Croatian HNL
28.02.26	Varaždin - Hajduk Split	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Varaždin - Dinamo Zagreb	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Croatian HNL
19.12.25	Varaždin - Istra 1961	1:3
03.10.25	Istra 1961 - Varaždin	1:0
11.05.25	Istra 1961 - Varaždin	0:0
08.03.25	Varaždin - Istra 1961	0:0
07.12.24	Istra 1961 - Varaždin	0:0
20.09.24	Varaždin - Istra 1961	1:0
17.05.24	Istra 1961 - Varaždin	2:0

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