Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 12

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Arys K. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Arka Gdynia

	1	X	2
	1.62	4	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.05	5.3
	1.6	4.16	5.56
	1.69	3.72	4.90	Watch
	1.61	3.9	5.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.53)	3.97 ↓ (4.19)	5.22 ↓ (5.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
58.3%

Draw
23.7%

Arka Gdynia
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

22.3%

16.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

21.6%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Arka Gdynia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jagiellonia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Jagiellonia Białystok will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Piekutowski M. (G) 7. Pozo A. 13. Vital B. 70. Pelmard A. 27. Wdowik B. 21. Lozano S. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 80. Pietuszewski O. 11. Imaz J. 18. Prip L. 17. Sylla Y.	77. Weglarz D. (G) 4. Zator D. 23. Hermoso K. 29. Marcjanik M. (C) 2. Navarro M. 10. Nguiamba A. 35. Jakubczyk K. 11. Kocyla D. 31. Rusyn N. 99. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 37. Kerk S.
Substitutes
19. Cantero A. 66. Damasiewicz A. (G) 8. Drachal D. 31. Flach L. 25. Jackson A. 4. Kobayashi Y. 86. Mazurek B. 5. Polak C. 10. Pululu A. 9. Rallis D. 3. Stojinovic D. 15. Wojtuszek N.	33. Abramowicz D. 9. Gaprindashvili T. 94. Gojny D. 1. Grobelny J. (G) 22. Percan 6. Perea L. 8. Sidibe A. 7. Sobczak S. 14. Vitalucci H.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Szwarga D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Lozano S. ⚽,
41', Romanczuk T. 🟨,
45+1', Nguiamba A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
57', 2 - 0, Sylla Y. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
58', Prip L. ↓, Wojtuszek N. ↑,
58', Sylla Y. ↓, Pululu A. ↑,
58', Lozano S. ↓, Flach L. ↑,
61', Nguiamba A. ↓, Vitalucci H. ↑,
61', Rusyn N. ↓, Perea L. ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Pululu A. ⚽,
70', 4 - 0, Pululu A. ⚽,
75', Jakubczyk K. ↓, Sidibe A. ↑,
75', Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↓, Sobczak S. ↑,
75', Kocyla D. ↓, Gojny D. ↑,
75', Wdowik B. ↓, Polak C. ↑,
82', Pietuszewski O. ↓, Jackson A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 5.

Jagiellonia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arka has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Jagiellonia is the team to beat.

We predict that Jagiellonia will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Jagiellonia won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:10. (average 2.6:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Jagiellonia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
05.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
02.10.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Hamrun Spartans	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.09.25	Lech Poznań - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
24.09.25	Legia Warsaw - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Wisła Płock - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 WWTTW
- Arka Gdynia
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.10.25	Arka Gdynia - Cracovia	2:1 ✺
29.09.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Arka Gdynia	4:0 ✺
Polish Cup
25.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Motor Lublin	1:0 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.09.25	Arka Gdynia - Korona Kielce	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Widzew Łódź - Arka Gdynia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
24.11.19	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	2:0
19.07.19	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:3
Polish Cup
04.12.18	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.18	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	3:1
29.07.18	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2
17.03.18	Jagiellonia Białystok - Arka Gdynia	3:2
22.10.17	Arka Gdynia - Jagiellonia Białystok	4:1

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