Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Chorten Arena (Bialystok)

Referee: Milanovic M. (Srb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Denmark	Disney+
Finland	Elisa Viihde Sport, Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 14
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	beIN Connect
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Philippines	beIN Connect
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 2
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones 17
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+


	Jagiellonia Białystok		Molde

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.3	2.25
	2.9	3.3	2.2
	3	3.5	2.25
	3.08	3.51	2.33
	2.94	3.52	2.27	Watch
	2.38	3.7	2.45
	3.07	3.64	2.29
	3	3.5	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.95 ↑ (2.45)	3.5 ↑ (3.35)	2.29 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jagiellonia Białystok
31.9%

Draw
26.9%

Molde
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

27%

36.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

26.9%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jagiellonia Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Molde has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Molde's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Molde than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Molde, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20%	30%

Jagiellonia Białystok - Molde Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Jagiellonia will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Molde will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 21.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jagiellonia: 24.9% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Abramowicz S. (G) 16. Sacek M. 3. Stojinovic D. 17. Dieguez A. 44. Moutinho J. 11. Imaz J. 6. Romanczuk T. (C) 14. Kubicki J. 99. Hansen K. 10. Pululu A. 21. Churlinov D.	22. Posiadala A. (G) 18. Stenevik H. 26. Amundsen I. 2. Bjornbak M. (C) 25. Hagelskjaer A. 31. Lovik M. 20. Eriksen K. 17. Daehli M. 16. Breivik E. 10. Enggaard M. 27. Brynhildsen O.
Substitutes
82. Costa Silva T. 9. Diaby-Fadiga L. 4. Haliti J. 22. Kovacik P. 29. Listkowski M. 8. Nene 39. Nguiamba A. 66. Piekutowski M. (G) 5. Polak C. 51. Rybak A. 1. Stryjek M. (G) 20. Villar Miki	23. Granaas S. 19. Haugan E. 28. Haugen K. 5. Hestad E. 9. Ihler F. 32. Lervik P. (G) 4. Lund V. 34. McDermott S. (G) 29. Nyheim G. 33. Odegard N.
Coaches
Siemieniec A.	Moe E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Pululu A. ⚽, Kubicki J. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', 2 - 0, Hansen K. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
62', Enggaard M. ↓, Ihler F. ↑,
62', Stenevik H. ↓, Haugan E. ↑,
67', Kubicki J. ↓, Nene ↑,
75', 3 - 0, Hansen K. ⚽, Imaz J. (A),
77', Brynhildsen O. ↓, Hestad E. ↑,
77', Daehli M. ↓, Granaas S. ↑,
79', Pululu A. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
85', Sacek M. ↓, Kovacik P. ↑,
85', Imaz J. ↓, Costa Silva T. ↑,
85', Churlinov D. ↓, Listkowski M. ↑,
87', Hagelskjaer A. ↓, Lund V. ↑,

Preview

Jagiellonia in the last match got series victories and it is in a super good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Recent matches Molde is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Jagiellonia: Skrzypczak M. (Injury) Villar Miki (Injury)

There will not play in Molde: Berisha V. (Injury) Gulbrandsen F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Jagiellonia: Diaby-Fadiga L. (Injury) Wojdakowski D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Molde: Bakke J. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jagiellonia Białystok
Polish Ekstraklasa
03.11.24	Górnik Zabrze - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:2 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.24	Chojniczanka Chojnice - Jagiellonia Białystok	0:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
27.10.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Korona Kielce	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Jagiellonia Białystok - Petrocub-Hîncești	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
19.10.24	Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWW
- Molde FK
Norwegian Eliteserien
03.11.24	Molde - Bodø Glimt	3:3 ✺
Norwegian NM Cup
30.10.24	Sandnes Ulf - Molde	0:2 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
27.10.24	Haugesund - Molde	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
24.10.24	Gent - Molde	2:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
19.10.24	Molde - Sandefjord	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWWLL

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