Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 9

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico-Ciudad Madero)

Referee: Lopez A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	Aym Sports


	Jaiba Brava		Dorados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.57	3.80	4.60
	1.7	3.65	4.2	Watch
	1.76	3.8	4.74
	1.65	4.04	4.74	Watch
	1.71	3.7	4.65
	1.74	3.89	4.19	Watch
	1.7	3.7	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.75)	3.8 ↑ (3.4)	4.47 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jaiba Brava
54.9%

Draw
24.4%

Dorados
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

26.6%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

29%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jaiba Brava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Dorados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiba Brava than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dorados than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Jaiba Brava - Dorados Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ruiz G. (C) 22. Arriaga N. 26. Manzanarez O. 17. Ramirez I. 25. Padilla A. 7. Magana D. 5. Ochoa I. 16. Martinez J. 11. Cruz C. 9. Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 10. Torres E.	21. Castro J. (G) 20. Osuna D. 4. Franco R. 32. Castro C. 5. Flores A. 6. Guajardo D. 13. Padilla G. 18. Cervantes S. 17. Pena F. (C) 10. Vargas L. 29. Coronel O.
Substitutes
2. Bocco L. 150. Diaz S. 1. Garcia J. (G) 8. Gonzalez R. 19. Lopez D. 21. Lopez F. 6. Lopez Gonzalez J. 33. Martinez S. 177. Mendez O. 18. Serna A.	7. Alvarez J. 11. Contreras F. 12. Egana A. 34. Flores I. (G) 27. Flores M. 8. Galicia C. 22. Gonzalez Rodriguez W. 15. Leyva C. 28. Ordorica B. 23. Sanchez B.
Coaches
Ruiz M. A.	Orozco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
10', Ochoa I. 🟨,
22', Flores A. 🟨,
45+4', Franco R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. (Penalty Awarded),
50', 1 - 0, Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ⚽,
54', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. 🟨,
58', Padilla G. ↓, Ordorica B. ↑,
59', Guajardo D. ↓, Contreras F. ↑,
59', Flores A. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
62', Manzanarez O. 🟨,
66', Vargas L. ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
70', Arriaga N. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
81', Osuna D. ↓, Galicia C. ↑,
82', Ocejo Zazueta J. A. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
83', Martinez J. ↓, Mendez O. ↑,
87', Lopez F. 🟨,
90+2', Magana D. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
90+2', Ramirez I. ↓, Lopez Gonzalez J. ↑,
90+7', 1 - 1, Pena F. (Penalty Awarded),
90+7', Coronel O. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 12th and 7th in the Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jaiba Brava won 4.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Jaiba Brava could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Jaiba Brava carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 18 head-to-head meetings, Jaiba Brava has recorded 9 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 29:22 (averaging 1.6:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Jaiba Brava against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 16:10 goals (averaging 1.8:1.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Dorados de Sinaloa	11	3	4	4	20:20	0	13
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12:19	-7	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Jaiba Brava
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
12.09.26	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
05.09.26	Jaiba Brava - Venados	4:3 ✺
29.08.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Jaiba Brava	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Jaiba Brava - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Leones Negros UdeG - Jaiba Brava	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLWL
- Dorados de Sinaloa
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
15.09.26	Dorados - Cancún	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Dorados - Tapatío	3:1 ✺
03.09.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Dorados	1:4 ✺
28.08.26	Dorados - Atlético Morelia	0:1 ✺
20.08.26	Venados - Dorados	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
08.03.26	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	2:0
27.09.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	2:3
22.03.25	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	0:1
22.10.24	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	4:3
26.01.22	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:1
11.12.21	Dorados - Jaiba Brava	0:1
08.12.21	Jaiba Brava - Dorados	1:0

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