Match Info

Eerste Divisie - Round 30

Date: 9 March 2026, Monday

Location: AFAS Trainingscomplex (Wijdewormer)

Referee: Kuipers J. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN


	Jong AZ Alkmaar		Emmen

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.7	3
	2.1	3.8	2.75
	2.18	3.7	2.98	Watch
	2.19	3.82	3.05
	2.11	3.78	3.06	Watch
	2.15	3.5	2.9
	2.11	3.68	3.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↑ (1.82)	3.71 ↓ (4.11)	2.97 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jong AZ Alkmaar
43.6%

Draw
25.1%

Emmen
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.3%

22.7%

26%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

22.1%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jong AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Jong AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Emmen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jong AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Jong AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emmen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	10%	40%

Jong AZ Alkmaar - Emmen Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Jong AZ will win (votes: 5 - 50%). Emmen will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Jong AZ: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Emmen (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Jong AZ (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Jong AZ (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Emmen (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Jong AZ (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Emmen (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schipper J. (G) 2. Menu M. (C) 3. Natali A. 4. Dekker M. 5. Andersen F. E. 6. Robbemond R. 8. Boogaard K. 7. Oufkir A. 10. Sin M. 11. Bouziane W. 9. Meerdink M.	38. Unbehaun L. (G) 22. Beukers D. 3. Sondergaard P. 2. Mukeh J. 17. Larsen L. 25. Kongolo R. 6. Staring C. 77. Gerezgiher F. 8. Bakir A. 10. Besuijen V. (C) 9. Postema R.
Substitutes
15. Esajas J. 17. Hartog J. 12. Inge K. 19. Kovacs B. 20. Oerip J. 22. Oud J. 23. Schilder K. (G) 21. Smits A. 14. Twisk N. 18. van der Klaauw D. 16. Zeggen K. (G)	34. Bolk G. 1. Bucker K. (G) 18. Evina F. 5. Geypens T. 30. Hojabrpour A. 16. Norder K. (G) 21. Nunumete D. 4. Ostergaard C. 26. Otten D. 12. Quispel F. 29. Sadiku A. 14. van Manen S.
Coaches
Peereboom F.	van Dam M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Staring C. ⚽, Postema R. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Oufkir A. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 2, Gerezgiher F. ⚽, Larsen L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Meerdink M. ↓, Kovacs B. ↑,
46', Schipper J. ↓, Zeggen K. ↑,
54', 2 - 2, Kovacs B. ⚽, Bouziane W. (A),
59', Bakir A. ↓, Quispel F. ↑,
59', Kongolo R. ↓, Nunumete D. ↑,
61', Oufkir A. ↓, Hartog J. ↑,
68', Larsen L. ↓, Bolk G. ↑,
72', Robbemond R. ↓, Oerip J. ↑,
77', Besuijen V. ↓, Geypens T. ↑,
77', Gerezgiher F. ↓, van Manen S. ↑,
77', 2 - 3, van Manen S. ⚽,
84', Mukeh J. 🟨,
86', Bouziane W. ↓, Smits A. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 2.

Recent performances by Jong AZ have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Emmen has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jong AZ may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Emmen has had a series of home games.

Jong AZ is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Jong AZ: Chavez Garcia M. (Injury) Zwart J. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Emmen: Claridge A. (Knee Injury) Denk L. (Knee Injury) Kade J. (Knee Injury) Rhein T. (Knee Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Jong AZ won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 17:17. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Jong AZ won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Outrights of Dutch Eerste Divisie for now

FC Emmen: 3.87%

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	FC Emmen	10	6	1	3	22:18	4	19
11	Jong AZ	10	4	1	5	22:18	4	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jong AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eerste Divisie
27.02.26	Vitesse - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:0 ✺
23.02.26	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Den Bosch	2:2 ✺
13.02.26	FC Oss - Jong AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
09.02.26	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Dordrecht	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	ADO Den Haag - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.7 LTWLW
- FC Emmen
Dutch Eerste Divisie
02.03.26	Emmen - Jong Utrecht	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Emmen - Willem II	0:3 ✺
23.02.26	Emmen - Jong Ajax	0:0 ✺
20.02.26	Emmen - Jong PSV	2:3 ✺
13.02.26	Dordrecht - Emmen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eerste Divisie
28.11.25	Emmen - Jong AZ Alkmaar	4:2
18.04.25	Emmen - Jong AZ Alkmaar	1:4
13.12.24	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	1:1
08.04.24	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	3:2
27.10.23	Emmen - Jong AZ Alkmaar	2:1
08.04.22	Emmen - Jong AZ Alkmaar	3:0
22.11.21	Jong AZ Alkmaar - Emmen	0:0

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