Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 4

Date: 28 April 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)

Referee: Gomes Stefano A. (Bra)


	Juventude		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.3
	3.25	3.2	2.3
	3.3	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.54	3.15	2.33
	3.51	3.1	2.35
	3.1	3.2	2.25
	3.41	3.18	2.25	Watch
	3.3	3.05	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.8)	3.15 ↑ (2.85)	2.29 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
28.3%

Draw
30.2%

Athletico Paranaense
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

32.5%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.1%

33.5%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Athletico Paranaense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Juventude, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Athletico Paranaense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

Juventude - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Juventude will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Athletico PR will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Athletico PR: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 2. Joao Lucas 4. Danilo Boza 3. Ze Marcos 28. Alan Ruschel 95. Caique Goncalves 16. Jadson 10. Nene (C) 21. Lucas Barbosa 7. Erick Farias 11. Marcelinho	1. Bento (G) 29. Godoy L. 4. Kaique Rocha 15. Gamarra M. 37. Esquivel L. 5. Fernandinho (C) 26. Erick 23. Felipinho 28. Cuello 88. Christian 92. Pablo
Substitutes
23. Abner 36. Da Rocha 12. Gabriel Inocencio 22. Joao Vitor 75. Kleiton 44. Mandaca 33. Renan (G) 37. Rildo 29. Ruan 15. Schaffer M. 8. Thiaguinho 45. Werik Popo	80. Alex Santana 6. Fernando 3. Gabriel 9. Gonzalo Mastriani 20. Julimar 24. Leo Linck (G) 22. Madson 46. Marcos Maia 41. Mycael (G) 11. Nikao 10. Zapelli B. 30. Ze Vitor
Coaches
Roger Machado	Cuca

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Erick Farias ⚽, Lucas Barbosa (A),
30', Roger Machado 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Felipinho ↓, Julimar ↑,
49', Caique Goncalves 🟨,
62', Marcelinho ↓, Kleiton ↑,
63', Lucas Barbosa 🟨,
63', Christian ↓, Nikao ↑,
68', Cuello ↓, Zapelli B. ↑,
68', Godoy L. ↓, Madson ↑,
73', 1 - 1, Nikao ⚽, Esquivel L. (A),
75', Erick Farias ↓, Rildo ↑,
77', Lucas Barbosa ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
78', Julimar 🟨,
81', Nene ↓, Mandaca ↑,
81', Pablo ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
90+3', Bento 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Juventude is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Athletico PR is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Athletico PR could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Athletico PR will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Juventude: Alan Ruschel (Injury) Gabriel Taliari (Injury) Gilberto (Injury) Lucas Freitas (Red Card) Luis Oyama (Injury)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Canobbio A. (Red Card) Gabriel (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Juventude won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Juventude won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Botafogo RJ - Juventude	5:1 ✺
17.04.24	Juventude - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
13.04.24	Criciúma - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
06.04.24	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1 ✺
30.03.24	Juventude - Grêmio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LWTLT
- Athletico Paranaense
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.24	Danubio - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Internacional RS	1:0 ✺
17.04.24	Grêmio - Athletico Paranaense	2:0 ✺
14.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Cuiabá	4:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.24	Athletico Paranaense - Rayo Zuliano	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.10.22	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	2:0
08.06.22	Juventude - Athletico Paranaense	1:3
18.09.21	Athletico Paranaense - Juventude	2:1
06.06.21	Juventude - Athletico Paranaense	0:3

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