Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Roldan W. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Belarus	Okko Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	MAXtv To Go
Georgia	Silk Universal
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter


	Botafogo RJ		LDU Quito

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.33	9.5	Watch
	1.37	4.6	8.5
	1.39	4.45	9.3	Watch
	1.42	4.43	8.55
	1.15	7.15	18.66	Watch
	1.36	4.4	8.5	Watch
	1.41	4.56	8.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.39)	4.85 ↑ (4.58)	10.27 ↑ (8.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
70.8%

Draw
19.8%

LDU Quito
9.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.1%

20.7%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

20.5%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

LDU Quito has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for LDU Quito than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	11.1%	5.6%

Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 3 - 75%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - LDU Quito (2.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo RJ will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 66.11% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 20%). LDU Quito (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. John Victor (G) 2. Vitinho 57. David Ricardo 20. Barboza A. 13. Alex Telles 17. Marlon Freitas (C) 35. Danilo 7. Artur 10. Savarino J. 8. Montoro A. 98. Arthur Cabral	1. Valle G. (G) 4. Ade R. (C) 3. Mina R. 33. Quinonez L. 8. Gruezo C. 14. Quintero J. 29. Ramirez Leon B. J. 15. Villamil G. 20. Cornejo F. 9. Alzugaray L. 16. Medina J.
Substitutes
25. Allan 30. Correa J. 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 48. Huguinho 47. Jeffinho 21. Marcal 11. Matheus Martins 16. Nathan Fernandes 22. Neto (G) 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 23. Rodriguez S.	6. Aimar D. 30. Allala Menendez G. F. 10. Alvarado A. 24. Cabeza A. 31. de la Cruz D. I. 23. Diaz M. 22. Dominguez A. (G) 26. Duran P. 2. Erique Villigua Y. H. 11. Estrada M. 5. Minda K. 7. Pastran L.
Coaches
Ancelotti D.	Tiago Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Artur ⚽, Alex Telles (A),
37', David Ricardo ↓, Marcal ↑,
37', Mina R. 🟨,
43', Marcal 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
47', Cornejo F. 🟨,
62', Montoro A. ↓, Correa J. ↑,
62', Artur ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
70', Cornejo F. ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
71', Medina J. ↓, Estrada M. ↑,
71', Savarino J. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
71', Danilo ↓, Allan ↑,
73', Gruezo C. 🟨,
76', Mina R. ↓, Aimar D. ↑,
85', Alzugaray L. ↓, Pastran L. ↑,
85', Ramirez Leon B. J. ↓, Erique Villigua Y. H. ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

LDU Quito may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Botafogo is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo: Bastos (Knee Injury) Cuiabano (Injury) Kaio (Injury) Marlon Freitas (Concussion)

There will not play in LDU Quito: Mina F. (Inactive) Zambrano O. (Doping)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
09.08.25	Fortaleza - Botafogo RJ	0:5 ✺
Copa do Brasil
06.08.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Botafogo RJ	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.25	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.07.25	Botafogo RJ - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.07.25	Botafogo RJ - Corinthians	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWLWT
- LDU Quito
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.08.25	SD Aucas - LDU Quito	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	LDU Quito - Mushuc Runa	2:1 ✺
24.07.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - LDU Quito	0:1 ✺
20.07.25	LDU Quito - Deportivo Cuenca	2:2 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
16.07.25	Olmedo - LDU Quito	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
08.05.24	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	2:1
11.04.24	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
06.06.23	LDU Quito - Botafogo RJ	0:0
04.05.23	Botafogo RJ - LDU Quito	0:0

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