Match Info

Gaucho - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Alfredo Jaconi (Caxias do Sul)


	Juventude		Grêmio

	1	X	2
	3.25	3	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3	2.28	Watch
	2.88	3.43	2.24
	3.25	3.02	2.32	Watch
	2.8	3	2.3
	3.3	2.78	2.29	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.07 ↓ (3.2)	3.1 ↓ (3.2)	2.28 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Juventude
30%

Draw
29.6%

Grêmio
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.1%

43.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

29.2%

45.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Grêmio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Grêmio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Juventude - Grêmio Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Juventude (2.23) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 2 - 50%). Grêmio (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Jandrei (G) 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 2. Rai Ramos 44. Mandaca 8. Lucas Mineiro 47. Marcos Paulo 19. Gabriel Taliari 17. Castro M. 25. Alisson Safira	1. Weverton (G) 18. Joao Pedro 2. Fabian Balbuena 44. Viery 23. Marlon 17. Dodi 8. Arthur Melo (C) 19. Noriega E. 9. Amuzu F. 7. Pavon C. 95. Carlos Vinicius
Substitutes
23. Abner 28. Alan Ruschel 43. Bernardo Toffolo 88. Davi Goes 18. Emerson Galego 70. Juan Christian 26. Ly I. 10. Marcos Paulo 22. Nathan 7. Pablo Roberto 27. Ray Breno 21. Ruan Carneiro (G)	77. Andre Henrique 38. Caio Paulista 99. Enamorado J. 12. Gabriel Grando (G) 37. Gabriel Mec 53. Gustavo Martins 40. Jefinho 14. Marcos Rocha 65. Riquelme 39. Tiago 3. Wagner Leonardo 4. Walter Kannemann
Coaches
Mauricio Barbieri	Castro L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Gabriel Taliari (Penalty Awarded),
36', Carlos Vinicius 🟨,
44', Arthur Melo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Dodi ↓, Gabriel Mec ↑,
46', Joao Pedro ↓, Enamorado J. ↑,
50', Castro M. 🟨,
61', Castro M. ↓, Pablo Roberto ↑,
64', Fabian Balbuena ↓, Gustavo Martins ↑,
66', Alisson Safira 🟨,
67', Jandrei 🟨,
69', Noriega E. 🟨,
70', Alisson Safira ↓, Marcos Paulo ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Viery ⚽, Noriega E. (A),
73', Gabriel Taliari 🟨,
77', Rai Ramos ↓, Nathan ↑,
77', Gabriel Taliari ↓, Juan Christian ↑,
79', Pavon C. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
Penalties (1 - 4)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 0.

Juventude is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Grêmio's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Grêmio has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Juventude won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:30. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Juventude won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.4:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Juventude
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
15.02.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
09.02.26	Juventude - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Juventude - Monsoon	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	Juventude - Caxias	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWTWW
- Grêmio RS
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
15.02.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	São Paulo - Grêmio	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 TLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
15.02.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1
31.01.26	Grêmio - Juventude	1:1
Brazilian Serie A
26.10.25	Grêmio - Juventude	3:1
01.06.25	Juventude - Grêmio	0:2
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
01.03.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:2 penalties
22.02.25	Grêmio - Juventude	2:1
05.02.25	Juventude - Grêmio	2:0

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