Match Info

GERMANY: DFB Pokal - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 October 2024, Tuesday

Location: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 4
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport 4, Sky Sport 8, Sky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top event, WOW
Switzerland	Sky Sport Top Event
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 9
World	Disney+


	Köln		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	1.75	4.1	3.9	Watch
	1.78	4.1	3.9
	1.82	4.2	4	Watch
	1.82	4.22	3.89
	1.82	4.28	3.73	Watch
	1.73	4	3.7
	1.82	4.1	3.86	Watch
	1.82	4.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.05)	4.15 ↑ (3.55)	3.87 ↑ (3.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Köln
52.7%

Draw
22.8%

Holstein Kiel
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

25.7%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

25%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Köln's performance.

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Holstein Kiel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Köln that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.2%	13.6%	18.2%

Köln - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Köln will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 4 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Köln: 48.7% – 87.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwabe M. (G) 3. Heintz D. 4. Hubers T. (C) 24. Pauli J. 29. Thielmann J. 8. Huseinbasic D. 6. Martel E. 17. Paqarada L. 7. Ljubicic D. 19. Lemperle T. 37. Maina L.	1. Weiner T. (G) 6. Ivezic M. 4. Erras P. 14. Geschwill M. 17. Becker T. (C) 15. Schulz M. 37. Gigovic A. 8. Porath F. 7. Skrzybski S. 18. Machino S. 19. Harres P.
Substitutes
38. Bakatukanda E. 18. Carstensen R. 43. Cuber Potocnik J. 33. Dietz F. 16. Obuz M. 47. Olesen M. 21. Tigges S. 40. Urbig J. (G) 9. Waldschmidt L.	20. Arp J.-F. 21. Dahne T. (G) 33. Javorcek D. 24. Knudsen M. 3. Komenda M. 9. Pichler B. 27. Puchacz T. 22. Remberg N. 23. Rosenboom L.
Coaches
Struber G.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Lemperle T. ⚽, Maina L. (A),
37', Gigovic A. 🟨,
44', Huseinbasic D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Erras P. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
52', Porath F. 🟨,
60', Skrzybski S. ↓, Arp J.-F. ↑,
61', Schulz M. ↓, Knudsen M. ↑,
71', Becker T. ↓, Puchacz T. ↑,
75', Machino S. 🟨,
77', Ljubicic D. ↓, Waldschmidt L. ↑,
79', Arp J.-F. 🟨,
84', Porath F. ↓, Pichler B. ↑,
84', 2 - 0, Waldschmidt L. ⚽, Maina L. (A),
89', 🟨,
90', Lemperle T. ↓, Obuz M. ↑,
90+3', Huseinbasic D. ↓, Olesen M. ↑,
90+4', Paqarada L. 🟨,
90+7', 3 - 0, Waldschmidt L. ⚽, Thielmann J. (A),

Preview

Recent matches Köln is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Holstein Kiel is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Köln could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Köln have a series of home games.

In this match Köln is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Köln won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:3 (average 2.5:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Köln won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:1 (average 2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Köln
German 2 Bundesliga
25.10.24	Köln - Paderborn	1:2 ✺
18.10.24	Darmstadt - Köln	5:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.10.24	Köln - Bochum	3:2 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
05.10.24	Köln - Ulm 1846	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Köln - Karlsruher	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWWT
- Holstein Kiel
German Bundesliga
26.10.24	Stuttgart - Holstein Kiel	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Holstein Kiel - Union Berlin	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Bayer Leverkusen - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
29.09.24	Holstein Kiel - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:4 ✺
21.09.24	Bochum - Holstein Kiel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.1 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
29.05.21	Holstein Kiel - Köln	1:5
26.05.21	Köln - Holstein Kiel	0:1
German 2 Bundesliga
31.03.19	Köln - Holstein Kiel	4:0
20.10.18	Holstein Kiel - Köln	1:1

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