Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne)

Referee: Jollenbeck M. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Köln		Stuttgart

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.63	Watch
	2.52	3.7	2.62
	2.61	3.8	2.66
	1.62	5.02	4.03	Watch
	2.64	3.87	2.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.91)	4 ↑ (3.67)	2.92 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Köln
41.4%

Draw
24.7%

Stuttgart
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

25.9%

41.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

26.6%

42.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Köln's performance.

Stuttgart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stuttgart might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Köln that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stuttgart than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stuttgart could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.9%	18.2%	40.9%

Köln - Stuttgart Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Köln will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). Stuttgart will win (votes: 9 - 40.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 18.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Köln: 20.4% – 61.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Köln (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Stuttgart (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Stuttgart (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Köln (2.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Köln (3.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Köln (votes: 7 - 63.6%). Stuttgart (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwabe M. (C) 2. Schmied J. 6. Martel E. 4. Hubers T. 28. Sebulonsen S. 18. Johannesson I. 5. Krauss T. 37. Maina L. 29. Thielmann J. 9. Ache R. 16. Kaminski J.	33. Nubel A. (G) 4. Vagnoman J. 14. Jaquez L. 24. Chabot J. 3. Hendriks R. 16. Karazor A. (C) 6. Stiller A. 8. Tomas T. 11. El Khannouss B. 10. Fuhrich C. 9. Demirovic E.
Substitutes
17. Castro-Montes A. 13. El Mala S. 3. Heintz D. 8. Huseinbasic D. 11. Kainz F. 32. Lund K. 39. Ozkacar C. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)	2. Al Dakhil A. 30. Andres C. 22. Assignon L. 27. Bouanani B. 1. Bredlow F. (G) 18. Leweling J. 7. Mittelstadt M. 28. Nartey N. 15. Stenzel P.
Coaches
Kwasniok L.	Hoeness S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Kaminski J. ⚽, Ache R. (A),
28', 1 - 1, Demirovic E. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Hendriks R. ↓, Mittelstadt M. ↑,
62', Ache R. ↓, El Mala S. ↑,
62', Maina L. ↓, Huseinbasic D. ↑,
67', Schmied J. 🟨,
71', Fuhrich C. ↓, Leweling J. ↑,
71', Tomas T. ↓, Bouanani B. ↑,
74', Johannesson I. ↓, Kainz F. ↑,
74', Thielmann J. ↓, Lund K. ↑,
76', Krauss T. 🟨,
78', Jaquez L. 🟨,
81', 1 - 2, Vagnoman J. ⚽, Stiller A. (A),
85', Schmied J. ↓, Waldschmidt L. ↑,
86', El Khannouss B. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
86', Jaquez L. ↓, Al Dakhil A. ↑,
90+1', Bouanani B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Köln won 0.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Stuttgart may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Köln has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Köln: Bulter M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury) van den Berg R. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Stuttgart: Jeltsch F. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Undav D. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stuttgart: Diehl J. (Muscle Injury) Stergiou L. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Köln won 4 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Köln won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
20.09.25	RB Leipzig - Köln	3:1 ✺
13.09.25	Wolfsburg - Köln	3:3 ✺
31.08.25	Köln - Freiburg	4:1 ✺
24.08.25	Mainz - Köln	0:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Jahn Regensburg - Köln	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LTWWW
- VfB Stuttgart
UEFA Europa League
25.09.25	Stuttgart - Celta de Vigo	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.25	Stuttgart - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
13.09.25	Freiburg - Stuttgart	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Sonnenhof Großaspach - Stuttgart	2:6 ✺
German Bundesliga
30.08.25	Stuttgart - Borussia Mönchengladbach	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
24.02.24	Stuttgart - Köln	1:1
30.09.23	Köln - Stuttgart	0:2
18.02.23	Stuttgart - Köln	3:0
Club Friendly
19.11.22	Köln - Stuttgart	2:4
German Bundesliga
28.08.22	Köln - Stuttgart	0:0
14.05.22	Stuttgart - Köln	2:1
19.12.21	Köln - Stuttgart	1:0

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