Match Info

J3 League - Round 16

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Unilever Stadium Shintomi (Miyazaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Tegevajaro Miyazaki		Osaka

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.2
	2.92	3	2.28
	3.14	3.18	2.31
				Watch
	3	2.8	2.3
	3.08	3.02	2.26	Watch
	2.92	3	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.57)	3 ↑ (2.94)	2.27 ↓ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tegevajaro Miyazaki
30%

Draw
30.1%

Osaka
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

30.6%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.7%

30.9%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tegevajaro Miyazaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Osaka's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tegevajaro Miyazaki than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Osaka than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Osaka, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Osaka (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Osaka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Lee Chung-won (G) 24. Matsumoto Y. 33. Kuroki K. 35. Egawa G. 39. Shimokawa Y. 50. Yasuda K. 8. Rikiyasu S. 41. Sakai S. 47. Okumura K. 10. Inoue R. 11. Hashimoto K.	1. Yamamoto T. (G) 37. Tsutsumi S. 3. Kawakami R. 23. Akiyama T. 6. Tachino S. 24. Sato R. 8. Haga A. 27. Sawazaki R. 51. Nishimura M. 19. Masuda S. 9. Shimada T.
Substitutes
40. Ando R. 55. Aoki K. (G) 42. Matsumoto K. 13. Nakano K. 6. Okuma K. 4. Sakurai F. 45. Tanaka S. 25. Yokokubo K. 18. Yoshizawa S.	16. Hashimoto R. 22. Hayashida K. 7. Kitsui T. 10. Kubo R. 39. Mochizuki S. 18. Natsukawa Y. 31. Sugawara H. (G) 25. Takei S. 33. Woo S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Haga A. ↓, Takei S. ↑,
64', Sato R. ↓, Kitsui T. ↑,
65', Shimada T. 🟨,
76', Okumura K. 🟨,
79', Inoue R. ↓, Yoshizawa S. ↑,
83', Nishimura M. ↓, Natsukawa Y. ↑,
83', Masuda S. ↓, Kubo R. ↑,
86', Sakai S. ↓, Nakano K. ↑,
90', Takei S. 🟨,
90+1', Shimada T. ↓, Mochizuki S. ↑,
90+5', Sawazaki R. ↓, Hashimoto R. ↑,
90+7', Okumura K. ↓, Matsumoto K. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J3 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Tegevajaro Miyazaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tegevajaro Miyazaki
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Sagamihara	4:2 ✺
31.05.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1 ✺
17.05.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Zweigen Kanazawa	1:1 ✺
06.05.25	Nara Club - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Kochi United	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTTWW
- FC Osaka
Japan J3 League
07.06.25	Kamatamare Sanuki - Osaka	0:3 ✺
31.05.25	Osaka - Kagoshima United	3:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
25.05.25	Matsumoto Yamaga - Osaka	2:1 ET ✺
Japan J3 League
18.05.25	Sagamihara - Osaka	1:2 ✺
07.05.25	Osaka - Matsumoto Yamaga	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
27.10.24	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka	1:0
29.06.24	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	4:1
18.11.23	Osaka - Tegevajaro Miyazaki	1:1
11.03.23	Tegevajaro Miyazaki - Osaka	0:1

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