Match Info

J1 League - Placement Play Offs - 15th place

Date: 6 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium (Kashiwa)


	Kashiwa Reysol		Kyoto Sanga

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.40	3.80	Watch
	1.78	3.60	4.20
	1.87	3.50	3.90	Watch
	1.78	3.88	4.69
	2	3.72	3.52	Watch
	1.75	3.50	4.20
	1.76	3.75	4.30	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.01)	3.62 ↑ (3.61)	4.09 ↑ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashiwa Reysol
51.2%

Draw
25.9%

Kyoto Sanga
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

26.2%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

26%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Kyoto Sanga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kyoto Sanga than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga Predictions

Users Predictions: Kashiwa Reysol will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Kojima R. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. (C) 26. Sugioka D. 24. Kubo T. 21. Konishi Y. 39. Nakagawa N. 2. Mitsumaru H. 8. Koizumi Y. 87. Yamauchi H. 18. Kakita Y.	1. Ota G. (G) 22. Sugai H. 50. Suzuki Y. (C) 3. Asada S. 44. Sato K. 6. Joao Pedro 25. Yoon S. 48. Nakano R. 7. Okugawa M. 9. Rafael Elias 18. Matsuda T.
Substitutes
88. Baba S. 40. Harakawa R. 9. Hosoya M. 13. Inukai T. 15. Komi Y. 27. Kumasaka K. 29. Nagai K. (G) 20. Segawa Y. 16. Yuruki K.	19. David 10. Fukuoka S. 88. Gustavo Barreto 16. Hiraoka T. 99. Honda F. 21. Kakoi K. (G) 93. Nagasawa S. 15. Nagata K. 32. Saito M.
Coaches
Rodriguez R.	Jo Gwi-Jae

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Joao Pedro 🟨,
45+1', Yoon S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
55', Harada W. 🟨,
57', 0 - 1, Joao Pedro ⚽, Matsuda T. (A),
60', Yamauchi H. ↓, Segawa Y. ↑,
60', Konishi Y. ↓, Harakawa R. ↑,
64', Harakawa R. 🟨,
72', Mitsumaru H. ↓, Komi Y. ↑,
72', Matsuda T. ↓, Honda F. ↑,
82', Yoon S. ↓, Fukuoka S. ↑,
82', Okugawa M. ↓, Nagasawa S. ↑,
87', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
88', Koizumi Y. ↓, Baba S. ↑,
90+2', Nakano R. ↓, Nagata K. ↑,
90+3', Rafael Elias 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 6-2.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 1.

Kashiwa is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Kyoto is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Kashiwa could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Kashiwa: Tezuka K. (Knee Injury) Watai M. (Knee Injury) Yamada Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Kyoto: Marco Tulio (Muscle Injury) Yonemoto T. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Kashiwa: Kumasaka K. (Knee Injury) Okubo T. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

We predict that Kashiwa will win today's game, with odds of 1.94.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 33:18. (average 2.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashiwa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.7:1.6).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kashiwa Reysol: 11.22% Kyoto: 1.57%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	4	4	0	0	10:4	6	12
14	Kyoto	4	1	1	2	6:8	-2	4

Last Results with these Odds

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.01 are the expected chance of winning is 47.07%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Kyoto Sanga - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 26.73%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
30.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	2:6 ✺
23.05.26	Kashiwa Reysol - JEF United Chiba	4:2 ✺
16.05.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Kawasaki Frontale	1:0 ✺
06.05.26	Kashiwa Reysol - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWL
- Kyoto Sanga
Japan J1 League
30.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	2:6 ✺
23.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - V-Varen Nagasaki	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:4 ✺
13.05.26	Vissel Kobe - Kyoto Sanga	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Nagoya Grampus - Kyoto Sanga	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
30.05.26	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	2:6
21.06.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga	3:3
02.04.25	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
26.06.24	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	2:2
25.02.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga	1:1
06.08.23	Kyoto Sanga - Kashiwa Reysol	0:1
29.04.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Kyoto Sanga	1:1

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