Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan)


	Ulytau		Kaspiy Aktau

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.15	3.95	Watch
	1.96	3.35	4.93
	1.69	3.4	4.98	Watch
	1.8	3.25	4
	1.9	3.06	4.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.05)	3.24 ↑ (3.06)	4.52 ↑ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
50.5%

Draw
28.9%

Kaspiy Aktau
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.8%

30%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

29.9%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ulytau's performance.

Kaspiy Aktau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ulytau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaspiy Aktau than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Ulytau - Kaspiy Aktau Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Ulytau will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ulytau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 13. Malikaydar S. 4. Chalkin M. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. 90. Martin D. 18. Bougnone A. 10. Taubay A. 14. Harada H. 7. Kishi K. 11. Smith A.	24. Zhomart D. (G) 21. Aripov D. 14. Amaral A. 30. Morgado B. 19. Taykenov M. 23. Nabikhanov A. 5. Strumia L. 15. Serikbay A. 7. Kabylan B. 11. Ndombasi N. 27. Esimbekov D.
Substitutes
20. Abylaykhan R. 12. Afanasenko V. 17. Daniyarov B. 22. Kospayev E. 69. Maulenov D. 19. Mukanbetzhanov A. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 8. Vachiberadze B. 78. Zakirov T. (G)	1. Ayazbaev N. (G) 29. Bekmyrza A. 67. Berdibek D. 55. Elemes N. 18. Kucheriavyi M. 28. Petrovic B. 13. Serikbay M. 10. Umaev I. 9. Zulfikarov B.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Shoytymov E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Taykenov M. 🟨,
38', Taubay A. 🟨,
39', Chalkin M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
60', Serikbay A. ↓, Umaev I. ↑,
60', Kabylan B. ↓, Serikbay M. ↑,
67', Bougnone A. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
68', Harada H. ↓, Serikkul R. ↑,
68', Malikaydar S. 🟨,
72', Esimbekov D. ↓, Zulfikarov B. ↑,
78', Zulfikarov B. 🟨,
84', Ndombasi N. 🟨,
84', Nabikhanov A. 🟨,
84', Umaev I. 🟨,
84', Nepogodov D. 🟨,
84', Nursultanov K. 🟨,
86', Kishi K. ↓, Daniyarov B. ↑,
86', Taubay A. ↓, Abylaykhan R. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 0, Keiler S. ⚽,
90+7', Strumia L. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 13).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Recently, Kaspiy has had a series of away games.

Ulytau will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32
10	Kaspij Aktau	26	8	5	13	27:36	-9	29

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
10.05.26	Ulytau - Kairat	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Ulytau - Yelimay Semey	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	4:3 ET ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Zhetysu - Ulytau	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 TWLLW
- FC Kaspiy Aktau
Kazakh Premier League
09.05.26	Yelimay Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:1 ✺
03.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Astana	1:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
30.04.26	Ordabasy - Kaspiy Aktau	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kaspiy Aktau	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Kairat - Kaspiy Aktau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh First League
26.07.24	Ulytau - Kaspiy Aktau	0:0
25.04.24	Kaspiy Aktau - Ulytau	3:2

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