Match Info

J1 League - Round 4

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium (Kawasaki)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Kawasaki Frontale		Mito HollyHock

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.8	3.7	Watch
	1.88	3.7	3.6	Watch
	1.94	3.91	4.08
	1.88	3.96	3.73	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.7
	1.9	3.87	3.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.67)	3.79 ↓ (3.86)	3.76 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kawasaki Frontale
50%

Draw
24.9%

Mito HollyHock
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

24%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kawasaki Frontale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kawasaki Frontale's form might have worsened.

Mito HollyHock has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	7.7%	15.4%

Kawasaki Frontale - Mito HollyHock Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kawasaki will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Mito HollyHock will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kawasaki: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Kawasaki Frontale will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
49. Brodersen S. (G) 29. Yamahara R. 5. Sasaki A. 3. Taniguchi H. 13. Miura S. 16. Ozeki Y. 6. Yamamoto Y. 18. Konno K. 14. Wakizaka Y. (C) 23. Marcinho 91. Romanic L.	34. Nishikawa K. (G) 6. Iida T. (C) 17. Itakura K. 71. Fofana M. 7. Omori S. 25. Mase T. 3. Osaki K. 19. Semba T. 39. Yamamoto H. 8. Kato C. 10. Watanabe A.
Substitutes
9. Erison 41. Ienaga A. 17. Ito T. 19. Kawahara S. 2. Matsunagane Y. 24. Miyagi T. 8. Tachibanada K. 1. Thebault-Yamaguchi L. (G) 22. Uremovic F.	14. Arai M. 2. Danilo Cardoso 70. Matheus Leiria 21. Matsubara S. (G) 15. Nagao Y. 29. Tada K. 48. Yamashita Y. 24. Yamazaki K.
Coaches
Hasebe S.	Kimori D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
9', Yamamoto H. 🟨,
30', Mase T. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Kato C. ⚽, Watanabe A. (A),
45+4', 0 - 2, Kato C. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mase T. ↓, Tada K. ↑,
61', Romanic L. ↓, Erison ↑,
62', Konno K. ↓, Ito T. ↑,
62', Marcinho ↓, Miyagi T. ↑,
71', Kato C. ↓, Yamashita Y. ↑,
75', Yamamoto Y. ↓, Tachibanada K. ↑,
77', Yamashita Y. 🟨,
79', Yamamoto H. ↓, Matheus Leiria ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Erison (Penalty Awarded),
90', Watanabe A. ↓, Danilo Cardoso ↑,
90', Semba T. ↓, Yamazaki K. ↑,
90', Ozeki Y. ↓, Kawahara S. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Wakizaka Y. ⚽,
Penalties (4 - 2)
1, Erison (Penalty Awarded),
1, Osaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Wakizaka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Tada K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Miyagi T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Omori S. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Tachibanada K. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Iida T. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)).

Kawasaki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kawasaki could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Kawasaki: Lee G. (Knee Injury) Oshima R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mito HollyHock: Torikai Y. (Red Card)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kawasaki won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kawasaki won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Kawasaki Frontale: 6.04% Mito: 0.78%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Kawasaki Frontale	4	1	3	0	8:6	2	6
11	Mito	4	1	2	1	6:5	1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kawasaki Frontale
Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Tokyo	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	JEF United Chiba - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	5:3 ✺
06.12.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Kawasaki Frontale	4:0 ✺
30.11.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWWLL
- Mito HollyHock
Japan J1 League
22.02.26	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	2:1 penalties ✺
14.02.26	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	3:2 penalties ✺
08.02.26	Tokyo Verdy - Mito HollyHock	3:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.11.25	Mito HollyHock - Oita Trinita	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	V-Varen Nagasaki - Mito HollyHock	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan Emperors Cup
12.07.23	Kawasaki Frontale - Mito HollyHock	2:1
11.07.18	Kawasaki Frontale - Mito HollyHock	2:1 penalties

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