Match Info

RUSSIA: Premier League - Round 4

Date: 11 August 2024, Sunday

Location: Samara Arena (Samara)

Referee: Karasev S. (Rus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5, Moja TV
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Russia	Sportbox.ru


	Krylya Sovetov		Fakel

	1	X	2
	2.04	3.49	3.97
	2.1	3.33	4.2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.8)	3.41 ↓ (3.95)	4.09 ↓ (4.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Krylya Sovetov
47.3%

Draw
28.7%

Fakel
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.7%

24.9%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.9%

26.2%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Krylya Sovetov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Krylya Sovetov's form might have worsened.

Fakel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krylya Sovetov than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fakel than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	20%	20%

Krylya Sovetov - Fakel Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Krylya Sovetov will win (votes: 3 - 60%). Fakel will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Pesjakov S. (G) 6. Babkin S. 23. Bijl G. 24. Evgenyev R. 11. Ezhov R. 3. Galdames T. 19. Oleynikov I. 15. Rasskazov N. 73. Shitov V. 4. Soldatenkov A. 8. Vityugov M.	31. Belenov A. (G) 10. Alshin I. 47. Bozhin S. 4. Dziov M. 15. Iljin V. 13. Kalinin I. 33. Kvekveskiri I. 88. Masternoy V. 6. Mertens D. 72. Senhadji R. 21. Shchetinin M.
Substitutes
17. Babaev U. 28. Dmitriev I. 22. Fernando Costanza 39. Frolov E. (G) 95. Gaponov I. 65. Gribakin I. 21. Ivanisenia D. 1. Lomaev I. (G) 32. Orozco F. 25. Pechenin K. 77. Pisarskiy V. 7. Tsypchenko D.	14. Appaev K. 8. Bagamaev A. 77. Bagatelia L. 7. Brahimi M. 92. Bryzgalov S. 5. Cele T. 17. Giorgobiani N. 1. Gudiev V. (G) 64. Ivlev A. 11. Motpan N. 22. Yurganov I.
Coaches
Osinjkin I.	Cherevchenko I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Bozhin S. 🟨,
35', Rasskazov N. 🟨,
41', Kalinin I. ↓, Appaev K. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
64', Senhadji R. ↓, Yurganov I. ↑,
64', Mertens D. ↓, Brahimi M. ↑,
74', Oleynikov I. ↓, Orozco F. ↑,
74', Babkin S. ↓, Fernando Costanza ↑,
74', Ezhov R. ↓, Tsypchenko D. ↑,
75', 1 - 0, Fernando Costanza ⚽,
76', Fernando Costanza 🟨,
78', 2 - 0, Orozco F. ⚽,
82', Iljin V. ↓, Ivlev A. ↑,
82', Masternoy V. ↓, Motpan N. ↑,
83', Shitov V. ↓, Dmitriev I. ↑,
87', Rasskazov N. ↓, Pechenin K. ↑,
90+1', Kvekveskiri I. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Krylya Sovetov won 4.

Krylya Sovetov has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fakel is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Krylya Sovetov will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Krylya Sovetov won 7 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 17-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Krylya Sovetov won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Krylya Sovetov Samara
Russian Premier League
05.08.24	Spartak Moscow - Krylya Sovetov	3:0 ✺
Russian Cup
01.08.24	Dynamo Makhachkala - Krylya Sovetov	1:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
26.07.24	Krylya Sovetov - Rostov	1:3 ✺
20.07.24	Krylya Sovetov - Zenit	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Khimki - Krylya Sovetov	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT
- Fakel Voronezh
Russian Premier League
04.08.24	Fakel - Krasnodar	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
30.07.24	Zenit - Fakel	3:0 ✺
Russian Premier League
27.07.24	Fakel - Akron Tolyatti	0:2 ✺
20.07.24	Dynamo Moscow - Fakel	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Fakel - Rostov	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Russian Premier League
25.04.24	Fakel - Krylya Sovetov	0:1
02.09.23	Krylya Sovetov - Fakel	3:0
28.05.23	Fakel - Krylya Sovetov	2:1
Russian Cup
27.11.22	Krylya Sovetov - Fakel	1:0
29.09.22	Fakel - Krylya Sovetov	0:1
Russian Premier League
19.08.22	Krylya Sovetov - Fakel	1:1
Russian FNL
17.04.21	Krylya Sovetov - Fakel	5:1

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