Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 25

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Köln		Borussia Dortmund

	1	X	2
	4	4	1.8	Watch
	4.33	4.1	1.71
	4.3	3.95	1.78	Watch
	4.3	4.13	1.82
	4.08	3.99	1.83	Watch
	4	3.8	1.75
	4.46	4.13	1.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.21 ↓ (4.38)	4.01 ↓ (4.22)	1.78 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Köln
22.7%

Draw
23.8%

Borussia Dortmund
53.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

22.5%

55.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

21.7%

57.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Köln has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Borussia Dortmund has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Köln than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Borussia Dortmund than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.3%	6.5%	82.3%

Köln - Borussia Dortmund Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Köln (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Borussia D (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Borussia D (1.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Borussia Dortmund will win (51 of 62 users predict this - 82.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.75% – 91.77%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borussia Dortmund will win (17 of 18 users predict this - 94.44%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Köln (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Borussia D (votes: 19 - 90.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwabe M. (C) 5. Krauss T. 33. van den Berg R. 22. Simpson-Pusey J. 32. Lund K. 18. Johannesson I. 6. Martel E. 38. Niang Y. 16. Kaminski J. 13. El Mala S. 9. Ache R.	1. Kobel G. (G) 3. Anton W. 4. Schlotterbeck N. (C) 5. Bensebaini R. 26. Ryerson J. 20. Sabitzer M. 8. Nmecha F. 24. Svensson D. 14. Beier M. 10. Brandt J. 9. Guirassy S.
Substitutes
30. Bulter M. 27. Chavez F. 3. Heintz D. 11. Kainz F. 37. Maina L. 36. Neumann C. 39. Ozkacar C. 7. Waldschmidt L. 20. Zieler R. (G)	27. Adeyemi K. 7. Bellingham J. 2. Couto Y. 40. Inacio S. 33. Meyer A. (G) 6. Ozcan S. 49. Reggiani L. 21. Silva F. 25. Sule N.
Coaches
Kwasniok L.	Kovac N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Guirassy S. ⚽, Beier M. (A),
45+2', Simpson-Pusey J. 🟥,
45+5', Bensebaini R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Johannesson I. ↓, Ozkacar C. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Beier M. ⚽, Brandt J. (A),
61', Guirassy S. ↓, Silva F. ↑,
61', Ryerson J. ↓, Couto Y. ↑,
75', Niang Y. ↓, Maina L. ↑,
82', Bensebaini R. ↓, Sule N. ↑,
83', Beier M. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
86', Martel E. 🟨,
86', Krauss T. ↓, Heintz D. ↑,
86', El Mala S. ↓, Neumann C. ↑,
86', Ache R. ↓, Bulter M. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Kaminski J. ⚽,
90+1', Nmecha F. ↓, Bellingham J. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Köln won 1.

Köln has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Borussia D has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Borussia D may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Borussia D is the team to beat.

There will not play in Köln: Hubers T. (Knee Injury) Huseinbasic D. (Hip Injury) Kilian L. (Knee Injury) Schmied J. (Muscle Injury) Sebulonsen S. (Muscle Injury) Thielmann J. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Borussia D: Can E. (Knee Injury) Chukwuemeka C. (Muscle Injury) Mane F. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Borussia D: Sule N. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Köln won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:41. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Köln won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.5:1.8).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Dortmund: 8.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	11:4	7	13
14	FC Koln	4	1	1	2	6:9	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Köln
German Bundesliga
27.02.26	Augsburg - Köln	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Köln - Hoffenheim	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Stuttgart - Köln	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Köln - RB Leipzig	1:2 ✺
30.01.26	Köln - Wolfsburg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LTLLW
- Borussia Dortmund
German Bundesliga
28.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Atalanta - Borussia Dortmund	4:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.02.26	RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund	2:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
13.02.26	Borussia Dortmund - Mainz	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	1:0
20.01.24	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	0:4
19.08.23	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	1:0
18.03.23	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	6:1
01.10.22	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	3:2
20.03.22	Köln - Borussia Dortmund	1:1
30.10.21	Borussia Dortmund - Köln	2:0

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