Match Info

URUGUAY: PRIMERA DIVISION - CLAUSURA - ROUND 13

Date: 30 November 2023, Thursday


	La Luz		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.8	Watch
	3.9	3.7	1.75	Watch
	4	3.75	1.78	Watch
	4.42	3.91	1.81
	4.42	3.91	1.81
	3.8	3.6	1.73
	4.1	3.8	1.75	Watch
	3.85	3.7	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.04 ↑ (3.56)	3.75 ↑ (3.64)	1.78 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

La Luz
23%

Draw
24.8%

Nacional Montevideo
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

25.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

25.1%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

La Luz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

La Luz - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Correa Gonzalez F. N. (G) 13. Ancheta E. 3. Padula Lenna G. 4. Gonzalez M. 22. Fagundez P. 15. Gonzalez A. 14. Porcile P. 16. Hernandez A. (C) 7. Boselli J. 30. Quintana J. 99. Gonzalez D.	25. Suarez I. (G) 16. Lozano L. 2. Bocanegra D. 23. Polenta D. (C) 49. Martinez F. 33. Chagas Rodrigo 5. Rodriguez Y. 6. Baez Corradi G. 7. Martinez F. 20. Carneiro G. 99. Ramirez I.
Substitutes
24. Baeza J. 28. Barreto F. 11. Lemos E. 26. Machado L. 6. Martirena F. 21. Pucheta J. 20. Rabunal M. 31. Sanchez R. (G) 10. Scorza B. 8. Viera R.	13. Almeida C. 11. Castro Irizábal G. 28. De Leon F. 10. Fagundez F. 9. Gigliotti E. 4. Helguera T. 32. Ichazo S. (G) 15. Rodriguez D. 19. Romero F. 22. Zabala D.
Coaches
Russo M.	Recoba A.

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 8).

La Luz is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Nacional is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently La Luz have a series of guest games.

In this match Nacional is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches La Luz won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.11.23	River Plate Montevideo - La Luz	1:0 ✺
19.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz	1:0 ✺
16.11.23	Boston River - La Luz	1:2 ✺
11.11.23	La Luz - Cerro	1:2 ✺
05.11.23	Racing Montevideo - La Luz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWLT
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
26.11.23	Nacional Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	3:1 ✺
20.11.23	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
15.11.23	Nacional Montevideo - Danubio	1:3 ✺
11.11.23	Nacional Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	2:2 ✺
04.11.23	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
29.04.23	Nacional Montevideo - La Luz	3:0

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