Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 26

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)


	Deportivo Maldonado		La Luz

	1	X	2
	2.22	2.88	3.2
	2	3.08	3.85
	1.98	3.27	3.76	Watch
	2.24	2.9	3.25
	1.9	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.98)	3.07 ↓ (3.27)	3.53 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
44.2%

Draw
29.8%

La Luz
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.9%

28.4%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

27.1%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

La Luz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Maldonado than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for La Luz than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Toloza N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
62', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 5 and 11).

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Maldonado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Maldonado could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:9. (average 2.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 2.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Segunda Division
19.10.25	Cerrito - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
11.10.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Colón Montevideo	0:2 ✺
05.10.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Artigas	6:1 ✺
27.09.25	Oriental de La Paz - Deportivo Maldonado	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Deportivo Maldonado - Uruguay Montevideo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLWWW
- La Luz FC
Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.10.25	La Luz - Oriental de La Paz	1:1 ✺
11.10.25	Uruguay Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	La Luz - Albion Montevideo	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - La Luz	0:2 ✺
19.09.25	La Luz - Rampla Juniors	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
02.08.25	La Luz - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2
26.04.25	Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz	4:4
Uruguayan Primera Division
19.11.23	Deportivo Maldonado - La Luz	1:0
17.04.23	La Luz - Deportivo Maldonado	4:2

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