Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 13 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez (Lanús)

Referee: Benitez C. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 1, Inter


	Lanús		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5	Watch
	1.82	3.4	4.5
	1.7	3.5	5	Watch
	1.7	3.51	5.52
	1.72	3.52	5.44	Watch
	1.8	3.2	4.6	Watch
	1.74	3.57	5.1	Watch
	1.7	3.5	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.83)	3.46 ↓ (3.5)	5.02 ↑ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lanús
54.2%

Draw
27.1%

Vasco da Gama
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.8%

26.6%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

25.7%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lanús has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lanús than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Lanús - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Lanús will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Vasco will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Lanús (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Lanús (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Losada N. (G) 21. Mendez A. 24. Izquierdoz C. 35. De Jesus R. 6. Marcich S. 39. Medina A. 30. Cardozo A. 11. Salvio E. 10. Marcelino Moreno 23. Carrera R. 9. Bou W.	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 44. Luiz Gustavo 6. Lucas Piton 3. Tche Tche 25. Hugo Moura 77. Rayan 11. Coutinho 17. Moreira N. 99. Vegetti P. (C)
Substitutes
25. Aquino D. 20. Cabrera B. 14. Canelo A. 13. Cardozo L. 17. Morales L. (G) 3. Morgantini N. 2. Munoz E. 28. Ontivero O. 32. Orozco F. 33. Ramirez J. 50. Sanchez F. 36. Segovia A.	28. Adson 90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 8. Jair 29. Lucas Oliveira 85. Mateus Carvalho 18. Paulinho Paula 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J. 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Pellegrino M.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Marcelino Moreno 🟨,
38', Hugo Moura 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Carrera R. ⚽,
58', Joao Victor 🟨,
72', Salvio E. ↓, Segovia A. ↑,
72', Bou W. ↓, Canelo A. ↑,
73', Rayan ↓, Adson ↑,
73', Luiz Gustavo ↓, Paulinho Paula ↑,
82', Coutinho ↓, Alex Teixeira ↑,
82', Tche Tche ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
83', Hugo Moura 🟨,
87', Carrera R. ↓, Ramirez J. ↑,
87', Paulinho Paula 🟨,
88', Moreira N. ↓, Lucas Oliveira ↑,
90', Mendez A. ↓, Munoz E. ↑,
90+1', Marcelino Moreno ↓, Orozco F. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Lanús has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vasco has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lanús may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

In this match, Lanús is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lanús won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Including home match between the teams, Lanús won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Lanús
Argentinian Liga Profesional
10.05.25	Boca Juniors - Lanús	1:0 penalties ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	FBC Melgar - Lanús	0:1 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.25	Atlético Tucumán - Lanús	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Lanús - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLWT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Vitória Salvador - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
07.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - Vasco da Gama	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.25	Operário Ferroviario - Vasco da Gama	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
27.04.25	Cruzeiro - Vasco da Gama	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
22.04.25	Vasco da Gama - Lanús	0:0
Copa Libertadores
09.05.12	Lanús - Vasco da Gama	N/A

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