Match Info

Date: 2 March 2022, Wednesday


	Lecce		Ascoli

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	5.25	Watch
	1.61	3.7	5.5
	1.62	3.65	5.6	Watch
	1.67	3.45	5
	1.71	3.61	5.94
	1.63	3.5	5.8
	1.67	3.72	5.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.68)	3.59 ↓ (3.88)	5.51 ↑ (5.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Network on TV: FOX Soccer Plus

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
56.8%

Draw
26.2%

Ascoli
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

24.8%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

15.5%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Ascoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-21.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lecce that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ascoli than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ascoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lecce - Ascoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Lecce has the most likely position - 1 (35.33%), has project points - 70, has currently - 49, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (40%), has a good chance of promoted (69%), has a chance of win league (35%).

Ascoli has the most likely position - 9 (15.85%), has project points - 58, has currently - 42, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (48%), has a small chance of promoted (6%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 37, importance 57, match rating 47. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lecce won 0.

Recent matches Lecce is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ascoli is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Lecce is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Lecce won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 21-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Lecce won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie B
27.02.22	Monza - Lecce	0:1 ✺
23.02.22	Lecce - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
20.02.22	Lecce - Crotone	3:0 ✺
16.02.22	Alessandria - Lecce	1:1 ✺
13.02.22	Lecce - Benevento	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWTT
- Ascoli Calcio
Italian Serie B
27.02.22	Ascoli - Crotone	2:1 ✺
23.02.22	Brescia - Ascoli	2:0 ✺
19.02.22	Ascoli - Alessandria	3:0 ✺
16.02.22	Benevento - Ascoli	0:2 ✺
13.02.22	Ascoli - Como	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
16.10.21	Ascoli - Lecce	1:1
05.02.21	Lecce - Ascoli	1:2
03.10.20	Ascoli - Lecce	0:2
23.03.19	Lecce - Ascoli	7:0
15.09.18	Ascoli - Lecce	1:0
Coppa Italia
08.08.16	Ascoli - Lecce	2:3 penalties
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
28.02.14	Lecce - Ascoli	2:1

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