Match Info

Date: 12 March 2022, Saturday


	Lecce		Brescia

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.25	3.9
	1.95	3.25	4	Watch
	2.03	3.15	3.6
	2.1	3.35	3.96
	2.1	3.2	3.5
	2.05	3.38	3.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↓ (2.2)	3.27 ↑ (3.13)	3.79 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
46.3%

Draw
28.8%

Brescia
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.6%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

19.6%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Brescia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lecce that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brescia than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brescia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lecce - Brescia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Lecce has the most likely position - 1 (32.63%), has project points - 71, has currently - 53, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (40%), has a good chance of promoted (70%), has a chance of win league (33%).

Brescia has the most likely position - 4 (17.16%), has project points - 66, has currently - 51, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of prom. playoffs (78%), has a chance of promoted (33%), has a small chance of win league (7%).

This event has quality 41, very big importance 95, match rating 68. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lecce won 0.

Lecce is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Brescia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lecce will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Lecce won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Lecce won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie B
06.03.22	Perugia - Lecce	1:1 ✺
02.03.22	Lecce - Ascoli	3:1 ✺
27.02.22	Monza - Lecce	0:1 ✺
23.02.22	Lecce - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
20.02.22	Lecce - Crotone	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWWLW
- Brescia Calcio
Italian Serie B
05.03.22	Cremonese - Brescia	2:1 ✺
01.03.22	Brescia - Perugia	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Como - Brescia	1:1 ✺
23.02.22	Brescia - Ascoli	2:0 ✺
20.02.22	Brescia - Frosinone	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
28.10.21	Brescia - Lecce	1:1
09.02.21	Lecce - Brescia	2:2
16.10.20	Brescia - Lecce	3:0
Italian Serie A
22.07.20	Lecce - Brescia	3:1
14.12.19	Brescia - Lecce	3:0
Italian Serie B
28.04.19	Lecce - Brescia	1:0
16.12.18	Brescia - Lecce	2:1

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