Match Info

Date: 6 March 2022, Sunday


	Perugia		Lecce

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.1	2.62	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.6
	2.85	2.85	2.8	Watch
	2.7	2.85	2.75
	2.87	2.97	2.93
	2.84	2.94	2.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.45)	2.97 ↓ (3.1)	2.75 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perugia
34%

Draw
31.8%

Lecce
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

29.9%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

21.5%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Lecce has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perugia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lecce, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Perugia - Lecce Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A).

Perugia has the most likely position - 9 (16.69%), has project points - 56, has currently - 41, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a chance of prom. playoffs (37%), has a very small chance of promoted (4%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lecce has the most likely position - 1 (37.74%), has project points - 72, has currently - 52, has not chance of relegated, has a chance of prom. playoffs (36%), has a good chance of promoted (73%), has a chance of win league (38%).

This event has quality 38, importance 50, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Perugia is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Lecce is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Perugia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Perugia won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Perugia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
01.03.22	Brescia - Perugia	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Perugia - Benevento	0:1 ✺
22.02.22	Alessandria - Perugia	1:2 ✺
19.02.22	Perugia - Cremonese	0:0 ✺
15.02.22	Nuova Cosenza - Perugia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLWTW
- US Lecce
Italian Serie B
02.03.22	Lecce - Ascoli	3:1 ✺
27.02.22	Monza - Lecce	0:1 ✺
23.02.22	Lecce - Cittadella	1:2 ✺
20.02.22	Lecce - Crotone	3:0 ✺
16.02.22	Alessandria - Lecce	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
23.10.21	Lecce - Perugia	0:0
22.04.19	Perugia - Lecce	1:2
08.12.18	Lecce - Perugia	0:0
Italian Lega Pro C1/B
02.02.14	Lecce - Perugia	3:4
29.09.13	Perugia - Lecce	2:0

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