Match Info

Serie A - Round 4

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Zufferli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football, SuperSport Maximo 360
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
Indonesia	Vidio
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3, ART Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Grandstand, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Disney+
Norway	VG+
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN, DAZN UK
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Lecce		Cagliari

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.88	2.8	Watch
	2.7	3	2.85
	2.88	2.88	2.82	Watch
	2.97	2.95	2.87
	40.00	8.40	1.07	Watch
	2.89	2.96	2.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.04 ↑ (2.78)	3.85 ↑ (3.01)	2.55 ↓ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
14.5%

Draw
34.1%

Cagliari
51.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

31.6%

34.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

33.7%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lecce's form might have worsened.

Cagliari has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cagliari's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+17.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lecce, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cagliari than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cagliari, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	57.1%	14.3%

Lecce - Cagliari Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 9 - 26.5%). Cagliari will win (votes: 5 - 14.7%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 58.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 42.3% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 10 - 83.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Lecce (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Cagliari (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Cagliari (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Tie (votes: 10 - 71.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (C) 21. Kouassi C. 44. Tiago Gabriel 4. Gaspar K. 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ramadani Y. 6. Sala A. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Stulic N. 23. Sottil R.	1. Caprile E. (G) 2. Palestra M. 26. Mina Y. 6. Luperto S. 33. Obert A. 8. Adopo M. 16. Prati M. 90. Folorunsho M. 14. Deiola A. (C) 94. Esposito Se. 19. Belotti A.
Substitutes
19. Banda L. 10. Berisha M. 22. Camarda F. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 14. Helgason T. J. 77. Kaba M. 80. Kovac N. 3. Ndaba C. 11. Ndri K. 13. Perez M. 32. Samooja J. (G) 5. Siebert J. 7. Tete Morente 17. Veiga D.	29. Borrelli G. 21. Cavuoti N. 24. Ciocci G. (G) 18. Di Pardo A. 17. Felici M. 10. Gaetano G. 3. Idrissi R. 9. Kilicsoy S. 4. Mazzitelli L. 30. Pavoletti L. 32. Pedro J. 15. Rodriguez J. 20. Rog M. 34. Sarno V. (G) 28. Zappa G.
Coaches
Di Francesco E.	Pisacane F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Tiago Gabriel ⚽, Sottil R. (A),
20', Tiago Gabriel 🟨,
27', Coulibaly L. 🟨,
33', 1 - 1, Belotti A. ⚽, Palestra M. (A),
45+1', Esposito Se. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gallo A. ↓, Ndaba C. ↑,
46', Sala A. ↓, Kaba M. ↑,
58', Prati M. 🟨,
60', Esposito Se. ↓, Gaetano G. ↑,
60', Prati M. ↓, Felici M. ↑,
61', Sottil R. ↓, Tete Morente ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Belotti A. (Pen),
72', Belotti A. ↓, Kilicsoy S. ↑,
73', Adopo M. ↓, Zappa G. ↑,
73', Ramadani Y. ↓, Camarda F. ↑,
80', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
86', Deiola A. ↓, Mazzitelli L. ↑,
89', Obert A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Lecce: Jean G. (Knee Injury) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury) Rafia H. (Inactive)

There will not play in Cagliari: Luvumbo Z. (Thigh Injury) Radunovic B. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lecce: Kaba M. (Thigh Injury) Pierret B. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Lecce won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:9. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Lecce won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
14.09.25	Atalanta - Lecce	4:1 ✺
29.08.25	Lecce - Milan	0:2 ✺
23.08.25	Genoa - Lecce	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Lecce - Juve Stabia	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Monopoli - Lecce	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTWT
- Cagliari Calcio
Italian Serie A
13.09.25	Cagliari - Parma	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Napoli - Cagliari	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Cagliari - Fiorentina	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.25	Cagliari - Virtus Entella	2:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Racing Santander - Cagliari	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
19.01.25	Cagliari - Lecce	4:1
31.08.24	Lecce - Cagliari	1:0
05.05.24	Cagliari - Lecce	1:1
06.01.24	Lecce - Cagliari	1:1
12.07.20	Cagliari - Lecce	0:0
25.11.19	Lecce - Cagliari	2:2
26.02.12	Cagliari - Lecce	1:2

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