Match Info

Serie A - Round 31

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Via del Mare (Lecce)

Referee: Piccinini M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, New World Sport App, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
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Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1
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Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
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Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Deutsch, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
Hungary	Match 4, Net4+
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Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport 2, Sport 3
Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia, SKY Go Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
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Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
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Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia


	Lecce		Venezia

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.88	3.4	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.3
	2.4	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.46	3.02	3.37	Watch
	2.3	3	3.3
	2.37	2.98	3.67	Watch
	2.45	3.1	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.32)	3.02 ↓ (3.2)	3.37 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lecce
40.1%

Draw
31.6%

Venezia
28.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.5%

30.1%

28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

29.4%

27.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lecce has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Venezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lecce than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Venezia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40.6%	34.4%	25%

Lecce - Venezia Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Lecce will win (votes: 12 - 40%). Venezia will win (votes: 8 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lecce: 22.5% – 57.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Venezia (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Venezia (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Lecce (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Venezia (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - Venezia (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Venezia (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Lecce (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Venezia (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Falcone W. (G) 12. Guilbert F. 6. Baschirotto F. (C) 4. Gaspar K. 25. Gallo A. 29. Coulibaly L. 20. Ramadani Y. 14. Helgason T. J. 50. Pierotti S. 9. Krstovic N. 7. Tete Morente	28. Radu I. (G) 16. Marcandalli A. 4. Idzes J. (C) 2. Cande F. 24. Zerbin A. 6. Busio G. 14. Nicolussi Caviglia H. 71. Perez K. 79. Carboni F. 10. Yeboah J. 9. Gytkjaer C.
Substitutes
22. Banda L. 5. Berisha M. 23. Burnete R. 1. Fruchtl C. (G) 19. Jean G. 77. Kaba M. 37. Karlsson J. 10. Ndri K. 75. Pierret B. 8. Rafia H. 3. Rebic A. 99. Sala M. 32. Samooja J. (G) 44. Tiago Gabriel 17. Veiga D.	19. Bjarkason B. 17. Conde C. 97. Doumbia I. 80. El Haddad S. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 18. Fila D. 23. Grandi M. (G) 5. Haps R. 1. Joronen J. (G) 11. Oristanio G. 21. Sagrado R. 33. Sverko M. 7. Zampano F.
Coaches
Giampaolo M.	Di Francesco E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Carboni F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Carboni F. ↓, Haps R. ↑,
46', Baschirotto F. 🟨,
50', 0 - 1, Gallo A. (Own goal),
54', Ramadani Y. ↓, Berisha M. ↑,
54', Pierotti S. ↓, Ndri K. ↑,
54', Coulibaly L. ↓, Pierret B. ↑,
56', Marcandalli A. 🟨,
61', Guilbert F. 🟨,
64', Perez K. 🟨,
65', 1 - 1, Baschirotto F. ⚽, Helgason T. J. (A),
68', Yeboah J. ↓, Oristanio G. ↑,
68', Gytkjaer C. ↓, Fila D. ↑,
68', Guilbert F. ↓, Veiga D. ↑,
73', Marcandalli A. ↓, Ellertsson M. E. ↑,
81', Perez K. ↓, Doumbia I. ↑,
83', Cande F. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lecce won 2.

Lecce has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Venezia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Lecce will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lecce: Gonzalez J. (Heart Problems) Marchwinski F. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Venezia: Crnigoj D. (Inactive) Maric M. (Leg Injury) Stankovic F. (Knee Injury) Svoboda M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Venezia: Duncan A. (Health problems) Schingtienne J. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Lecce won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:8 (average 1.4:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Lecce won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1.7:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Lecce
Italian Serie A
29.03.25	Lecce - Roma	0:1 ✺
14.03.25	Genoa - Lecce	2:1 ✺
08.03.25	Lecce - Milan	2:3 ✺
28.02.25	Fiorentina - Lecce	1:0 ✺
21.02.25	Lecce - Udinese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Venezia FC
Italian Serie A
29.03.25	Venezia - Bologna	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Koper - Venezia	7:3 ET ✺
Italian Serie A
16.03.25	Venezia - Napoli	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	Como - Venezia	1:1 ✺
01.03.25	Atalanta - Venezia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.5 LLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
25.11.24	Venezia - Lecce	0:1
Italian Serie B
20.05.21	Lecce - Venezia	1:1
17.05.21	Venezia - Lecce	1:0
16.03.21	Venezia - Lecce	2:3
05.12.20	Lecce - Venezia	2:2
11.02.19	Venezia - Lecce	1:1
22.09.18	Lecce - Venezia	2:1

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