Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 20 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Gishamer S. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Germany	Laola1
Poland	TVP Sport
Switzerland	SRF 2, SRF 2, SRF Info, SRF Info, SRF Play, SRF Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Lech Poznań		Thun

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	6	Watch
	1.43	4.80	6.75
	1.45	4.3	6.3	Watch
	1.44	5.14	6.41
	1.43	5.13	6.41	Watch
	1.45	4.6	6.15
	1.47	4.53	6.61	Watch
	1.46	4.7	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.7)	4.69 ↑ (3.98)	6.3 ↑ (4.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
65.1%

Draw
20%

Thun
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.5%

23.7%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.9%

22.7%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lech Poznań's performance.

Thun has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Thun might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lech Poznań that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thun than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	10.3%	5.1%

Lech Poznań - Thun Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.44) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lech Poznań will win (33 of 39 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.3% – 95.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lech Poznań will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lis M. (G) 2. Pereira J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 22. Murawski R. (C) 43. Kozubal A. 10. Walemark P. 21. Rodriguez P. 77. Palma L. 17. Sayyadmanesh A.	1. Steffen N. (G) 47. Fehr F. 19. Bamert J. 23. Burki M. (C) 27. Heule M. 70. Reichmuth N. 16. Roth J. 13. Zoukit N. 78. Matoshi V. 33. Gutbub M. 96. Labeau B.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 5. Berggren G. 53. Delikat K. 3. Douglas A. 20. Gumny R. 11. Hakans D. 41. Mrozek B. (G) 35. Pruchniewski M. (G) 56. Szymczak W. 59. Yegbe T.	17. Balaruban A. 20. Braschi R. 5. Burgy N. 37. Dahler L. 21. Derbaci D. 9. Dursun F. 80. Lengen S. 30. Maier N. 8. Saiz F. 25. Spycher T. (G) 18. Strannegard T. 22. Walti D. (G)
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Privitelli G. L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Walemark P. ⚽,
20', 2 - 0, Sayyadmanesh A. ⚽, Rodriguez P. (A),
25', 3 - 0, Walemark P. ⚽, Gurgul M. (A),
31', 4 - 0, Skrzypczak M. ⚽, Kozubal A. (A),
37', Walemark P. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
45', 5 - 0, Murawski R. ⚽, Rodriguez P. (A),
45+1', Gutbub M. ↓, Dursun F. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Heule M. ↓, Strannegard T. ↑,
46', Zoukit N. ↓, Saiz F. ↑,
47', 6 - 0, Hakans D. ⚽, Sayyadmanesh A. (A),
50', Reichmuth N. 🟨,
56', Reichmuth N. ↓, Burgy N. ↑,
64', Rodriguez P. ↓, Gumny R. ↑,
64', Palma L. ↓, Berggren G. ↑,
70', Strannegard T. 🟨,
79', 7 - 0, Gumny R. ⚽, Gurgul M. (A),
80', Sayyadmanesh A. ↓, Szymczak W. ↑,
80', Kozubal A. ↓, Delikat K. ↑,
82', Labeau B. ↓, Dahler L. ↑,
87', Murawski R. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Lech is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Thun has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Lech is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Lech will win today's game, with odds of 1.57.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of UEFA Europa League for now

Lech Poznan: 0.56%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0:4	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa League
14.08.26	KÍ Klaksvík - Lech Poznań	0:5 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.08.26	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Lech Poznań - KÍ Klaksvík	1:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
01.08.26	Wieczysta Kraków - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
29.07.26	Lech Poznań - AGF Aarhus	1:5 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWL
- FC Thun
UEFA Europa League
13.08.26	Vikingur Reykjavik - Thun	3:2 ✺
Swiss Super League
09.08.26	Basel - Thun	4:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.08.26	Thun - Vikingur Reykjavik	3:0 ✺
Swiss Super League
01.08.26	Thun - Young Boys	0:6 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.07.26	Dinamo Zagreb - Thun	3:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLWLL

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