Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Chivulete A. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lech Poznań		Mainz

	1	X	2
	3	3.7	2.2
	2.88	3.55	2.28
	3.03	3.68	2.29
	2.75	3.77	2.36	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.25
	3.02	3.72	2.21
	2.85	3.6	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.86)	3.65 ↑ (3.43)	2.27 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
32.4%

Draw
25.9%

Mainz
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

27.1%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

26.3%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45.5%	31.8%	22.7%

Lech Poznań - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 10 - 45.5%). Mainz will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 31.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 24.7% – 66.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lech (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 2nd Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (G) 2. Pereira J. 27. Monka W. 72. Skrzypczak M. 15. Gurgul M. 43. Kozubal A. 24. Jagiello F. 8. Gholizadeh A. 99. Rodriguez P. 77. Palma L. 9. Ishak M. (C)	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 7. Lee Jae-Sung 6. Sano K. 22. Veratschnig N. 8. Nebel P. 44. Weiper N. 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 31. Bakowski K. (G) 21. Baranski B. 14. Bengtsson L. 19. Fiabema B. 20. Gumny R. 88. Ismaheel T. 54. Jakobczyk K. 56. Lisman K. 4. Moutinho J. 6. Ouma T. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G)	35. Babatz L. (G) 16. Bell S. 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 5. Leitsch M. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 9. Nordin A. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
26', Widmer S. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
28', 0 - 1, Kawasaki S. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
31', Kozubal A. 🟨,
37', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Ishak M. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jagiello F. ↓, Ouma T. ↑,
51', Kawasaki S. 🟨,
67', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
67', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
67', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Ismaheel T. ↑,
71', Gurgul M. 🟨,
71', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
71', Weiper N. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
81', Kozubal A. ↓, Agnero Y. ↑,
85', Kawasaki S. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
85', Hollerbach B. ↓, Moreno Fell F. ↑,
86', Gurgul M. ↓, Moutinho J. ↑,

Preview

Lech is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mainz is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Mainz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Lech: Hakans D. (Ankle Injury) Jagiello F. (Injury) Milic A. (Injury) Murawski R. (Surgery) Thordarson G. (Injury) Walemark P. (Surgery)

There will not play in Mainz: Bos K. (Inactive) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card) Tauer N. (Inactive) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Douglas A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury)

We predict that Lech will win today's game, with odds of 2.92.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.34%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
07.12.25	Cracovia - Lech Poznań	2:2 ✺
Polish Cup
03.12.25	Piast Gliwice - Lech Poznań	0:2 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.11.25	Wisła Płock - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Lech Poznań - Lausanne-Sport	2:0 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.11.25	Lech Poznań - Radomiak Radom	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWTWW
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
05.12.25	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Universitatea Craiova - Mainz	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL

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