Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 12

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, ZAP
Albania	19:30	Tring Sport 2
Angola	19:30	Z Sports 1
Argentina	15:30	Disney+
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	05:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	19:30	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Bulgaria	20:30	Diema Sport 3
Canada	13:30	DAZN Canada
China	02:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Czech Republic	19:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	19:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Germany	19:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	20:30	Nova Sports 2
Hong Kong	02:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	18:30	Viaplay
India	00:00	Vision+
Indonesia	01:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	20:30	Sport 3
Italy	19:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	03:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	01:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	02:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	19:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 1
Mexico	12:30	Sky Sport
Mongolia	02:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	19:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	07:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
North Macedonia	19:30	MaxTV GO
Norway	19:30	Viaplay, V Sport 2
Pakistan	23:30	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	04:30	TVWan Sports
Peru	13:30	Disney+
Philippines	02:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	19:30	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	18:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Russia	21:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	21:30	Shahid
Serbia	19:30	Arena Sport 2
Singapore	02:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	19:30	Voyo
Slovenia	19:30	Sport TV3
South Korea	03:30	Coupang Play
Spain	19:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	19:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	19:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	21:30	S Sport+
Ukraine	20:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	18:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	15:30	Disney+
Usa	13:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	14:30	Disney+
Vietnam	01:30	TV 360
International	18:30	Onefootball


	Freiburg		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.87	3.55	4.76
	1.92	3.58	3.96	Watch
	1.91	3.64	4.62	Watch
	1.85	3.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.02)	3.51 ↑ (3.48)	4.47 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
51.2%

Draw
27.3%

Mainz
21.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

27.2%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	2.6%	7.9%

Freiburg - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Freiburg (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Freiburg (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Freiburg (1.31) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 29. Treu P. 19. Beste J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 32. Grifo V. (C) 14. Suzuki Y. 9. Holer L.	1. Riess L. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. (C) 48. Potulski K. 9. Nordin A. 6. Sano K. 24. Kawasaki S. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 17. Hollerbach B. 7. Lee Jae-Sung
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 5. Jung A. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D.	33. Batz D. (G) 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Kubler L. ⚽, Lienhart P. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Holer L. (A),
28', Nebel P. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 3 - 0, Manzambi J. ⚽, Suzuki Y. (A),
53', Kawasaki S. 🟨,
54', Nordin A. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
65', Bell S. 🟨,
68', Kubler L. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
69', Suzuki Y. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
73', Bell S. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
73', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
73', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
81', Beste J. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
81', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
90', 4 - 0, Osterhage P. ⚽, Ginter M. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Freiburg has had a series of away games.

In this match, Freiburg is the team to beat.

There will not play in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Irie C. (Illness) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Makengo J. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Yellow Cards) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mainz: Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:31. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Viktoria Plzeň - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	6:2 ✺
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Nice - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Union Berlin - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLWWT
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Universitatea Craiova - Mainz	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.03.25	Mainz - Freiburg	2:2
03.11.24	Freiburg - Mainz	0:0
21.04.24	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1
03.12.23	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1
19.03.23	Mainz - Freiburg	1:1
01.10.22	Freiburg - Mainz	2:1
12.02.22	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1

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