Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 12

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Europa-Park Stadion (Freiburg)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Freiburg		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.87	3.55	4.76
	1.92	3.58	3.96	Watch
	1.91	3.64	4.62	Watch
	1.85	3.33	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.02)	3.51 ↑ (3.48)	4.47 ↑ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Freiburg
51.2%

Draw
27.3%

Mainz
21.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

27.4%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

27.2%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.5%	2.6%	7.9%

Freiburg - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Freiburg (2.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Freiburg (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Freiburg (1.31) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Freiburg will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Freiburg will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Freiburg (votes: 20 - 90.9%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 3. Lienhart P. 29. Treu P. 19. Beste J. 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 32. Grifo V. (C) 14. Suzuki Y. 9. Holer L.	1. Riess L. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. (C) 48. Potulski K. 9. Nordin A. 6. Sano K. 24. Kawasaki S. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 17. Hollerbach B. 7. Lee Jae-Sung
Substitutes
20. Adamu J. 30. Gunter C. 27. Hofler N. 5. Jung A. 31. Matanovic I. 21. Muller F. (G) 6. Osterhage P. 37. Rosenfelder M. 7. Scherhant D.	33. Batz D. (G) 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 30. Widmer S.
Coaches
Schuster J.	Henriksen B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Kubler L. ⚽, Lienhart P. (A),
26', 2 - 0, Grifo V. ⚽, Holer L. (A),
28', Nebel P. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 3 - 0, Manzambi J. ⚽, Suzuki Y. (A),
53', Kawasaki S. 🟨,
54', Nordin A. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
65', Bell S. 🟨,
68', Kubler L. ↓, Gunter C. ↑,
69', Suzuki Y. ↓, Matanovic I. ↑,
73', Bell S. ↓, Hanche-Olsen A. ↑,
73', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,
73', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
81', Beste J. ↓, Scherhant D. ↑,
81', Manzambi J. ↓, Osterhage P. ↑,
90', 4 - 0, Osterhage P. ⚽, Ginter M. (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 12 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Freiburg has had a series of away games.

In this match, Freiburg is the team to beat.

There will not play in Freiburg: Dinkci E. (Muscle Injury) Irie C. (Illness) Kyereh D. (Lacking Match Fitness) Makengo J. (Muscle Injury) Rosenfelder M. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Amiri N. (Yellow Cards) Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Kohr D. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Mainz: Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Freiburg won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:31. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Freiburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Viktoria Plzeň - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
22.11.25	Bayern Munich - Freiburg	6:2 ✺
09.11.25	Freiburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
06.11.25	Nice - Freiburg	1:3 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Union Berlin - Freiburg	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 TLWWT
- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Universitatea Craiova - Mainz	1:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
21.11.25	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.03.25	Mainz - Freiburg	2:2
03.11.24	Freiburg - Mainz	0:0
21.04.24	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1
03.12.23	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1
19.03.23	Mainz - Freiburg	1:1
01.10.22	Freiburg - Mainz	2:1
12.02.22	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1

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