Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 11

Date: 21 November 2025, Friday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Stegemann S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz		Hoffenheim

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.6	2.55	Watch
	2.58	3.55	2.62	Watch
	2.56	3.68	2.7
	2.30	3.80	2.83	Watch
				Watch
	2.72	3.7	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.3)	3.67 ↓ (3.8)	2.67 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
37.8%

Draw
26.2%

Hoffenheim
36%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.4%

25%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

26.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Hoffenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mainz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hoffenheim than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.8%	13.7%	76.5%

Mainz - Hoffenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 48 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 4 - 8.3%). Hoffenheim will win (votes: 38 - 79.2%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hoffenheim: 67.7% – 90.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Mainz (1.87) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hoffenheim (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DNB - Hoffenheim (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Hoffenheim will win (15 of 19 users predict this - 78.95%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 27 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 4 - 14.8%). Hoffenheim (votes: 19 - 70.4%). Tie (votes: 4 - 14.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 25. Hanche-Olsen A. 15. Maloney L. 31. Kohr D. 2. Mwene P. 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 17. Hollerbach B. 7. Lee Jae-Sung	1. Baumann O. (C) 34. Coufal V. 2. Hranac R. 21. Hajdari A. 13. Bernardo 6. Promel G. 7. Avdullahu L. 18. Burger W. 27. Kramaric A. 11. Asllani F. 29. Toure B.
Substitutes
16. Bell S. 37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 21. da Costa D. 24. Kawasaki S. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.	25. Akpoguma K. 35. Arthur Chaves 9. Bebou I. 10. Damar M. 19. Lemperle T. 33. Moerstedt M. 37. Philipp L. (G) 22. Prass A. 17. Tohumcu U.
Coaches
Henriksen B.	Ilzer C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Hanche-Olsen A. (Own goal), Burger W. (A),
24', Widmer S. 🟨,
42', Bernardo 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Maloney L. ↓, da Costa D. ↑,
46', Widmer S. ↓, Kawasaki S. ↑,
58', Kramaric A. ↓, Lemperle T. ↑,
67', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
68', Hranac R. 🟨,
76', 1 - 1, da Costa D. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
77', Toure B. ↓, Moerstedt M. ↑,
88', Kohr D. 🟥,
90', Asllani F. ↓, Bebou I. ↑,
90', Hollerbach B. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
90+5', Amiri N. 🟨,
90+6', Mwene P. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3.

Mainz is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hoffenheim is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Hoffenheim: Machida K. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Leitsch M. (Illness)

There are questionable in Hoffenheim: Hlozek A. (Foot Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 38:35. (average 1.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2.2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.36%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Hoffenheim - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 33.61%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
09.11.25	Eintracht Frankfurt - Mainz	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Mainz - Fiorentina	2:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Mainz - Stuttgart	0:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
26.10.25	Stuttgart - Mainz	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTLL
- TSG Hoffenheim
German Bundesliga
08.11.25	Hoffenheim - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
02.11.25	Wolfsburg - Hoffenheim	2:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	3:2 penalties ✺
German Bundesliga
25.10.25	Hoffenheim - Heidenheim	3:1 ✺
19.10.25	St. Pauli - Hoffenheim	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
12.04.25	Hoffenheim - Mainz	2:0
01.12.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	2:0
13.04.24	Mainz - Hoffenheim	4:1
26.11.23	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:1
04.03.23	Mainz - Hoffenheim	1:0
Club Friendly
14.01.23	Hoffenheim - Mainz	2:2
German Bundesliga
10.09.22	Hoffenheim - Mainz	4:1

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