Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 6

Date: 3 November 2022, Thursday

Location: Stadion Miejski (Poznań)

Referee: Verboomen N. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Lech Poznań		Villarreal

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.4	2.45
	2.85	3.3	2.37
	3.15	3.25	2.38
	2.85	3.3	2.43
	3.02	3.36	2.47
	2.88	3.25	2.25
	2.9	3.44	2.3
	2.9	3.4	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.23)	3.34 ↑ (3.1)	2.39 ↑ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
32.3%

Draw
28.3%

Villarreal
39.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

29.7%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.3%

28.4%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25.5%	27.7%	46.8%

Lech Poznań - Villarreal Predictions

Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 12 - 25.5%). Villarreal will win (votes: 22 - 46.8%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 27.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Villarreal: 32.5% – 61.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Villarreal is Qualified for Europa Conference League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)

Lech has currently - 6, has not chance of 1st, has a good chance of 2nd (74%), has a chance of 3rd (26%), has a good chance of knockout phase (74%), has a chance of round of 16 (32%), has a small chance of qtrs (14%), has a very small chance of semis (5%), has a very small chance of final (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Villarreal has currently - 13, was already of 1st, has not chance of 2nd, has not chance of 3rd, was already of knockout phase, was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (73%), has a good chance of semis (52%), has a chance of final (34%), has a chance of win league (20%).

This event has quality 59, importance 55, match rating 57. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Villarreal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Lech: Karlstrom J. (Yellow Cards) Salamon B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Villarreal: Baena A. (Yellow Cards) Lo Celso G. (Leg Injury) Moreno G. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Lech: Douglas B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Villarreal: Albiol R. (Injury) Pedraza A. (Muscle Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Lech won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.10.22	Lech Poznań - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.10.22	Austria Wien - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.10.22	Cracovia - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
Polish Cup
19.10.22	Lech Poznań - Śląsk Wrocław	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.10.22	Górnik Zabrze - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTTLW
- Villarreal CF
Spanish LaLiga
30.10.22	Athletic Bilbao - Villarreal	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.10.22	Villarreal - Hapoel Beer Sheva	2:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
23.10.22	Villarreal - Almería	2:1 ✺
20.10.22	Barcelona - Villarreal	3:0 ✺
17.10.22	Villarreal - Osasuna	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
08.09.22	Villarreal - Lech Poznań	4:3

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