Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport OTT 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 5, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay
France	Canal+ Live 10
Greece	Nova Sports Start
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Ísland
India	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	Vidio
Japan	U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 4, Canal+ Action, Canal+, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Myanmar	Canal+ Myanmar
Nepal	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
Nigeria	SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport OTT 2
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 3
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 6
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Voyo
Serbia	Arena Sport 7
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport OTT 2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 4 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Extra
Thailand	AIS PLAY
Turkey	beIN Connect
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Leeds United		Bournemouth

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.45
	2.95	3.3	2.48
	3.05	3.3	2.56
	3.03	3.15	2.40	Watch
	3.04	3.54	2.48	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.84)	3.3 ↓ (3.38)	2.47 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
31.9%

Draw
29.2%

Bournemouth
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

28.3%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.3%

28.8%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bournemouth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bournemouth than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.5%	32.4%	44.1%

Leeds United - Bournemouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 8 - 23.5%). Bournemouth will win (votes: 15 - 44.1%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 32.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bournemouth: 27.4% – 60.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 3 - 20%). Bournemouth (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 8 - 53.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Leeds (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Leeds (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 5 - 29.4%). Bournemouth (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Tie (votes: 8 - 47.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Darlow K. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Gudmundsson G. 18. Stach A. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 8. Longstaff S. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	1. Petrovic D. (G) 20. Jimenez A. 18. Diakite B. 5. Senesi M. 3. Truffert A. 12. Adams T. 10. Christie R. (C) 24. Semenyo A. 21. Adli A. 19. Kluivert J. 9. Evanilson
Substitutes
15. Bijol J. 44. Gruev I. 20. Harrison J. 7. James D. 24. Justin J. 16. Meslier I. (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.	7. Brooks D. 40. Dennis W. (G) 11. Doak B. 23. Hill J. 22. Kroupi E. J. 44. Milosavljevic V. 8. Scott A. 6. Soler J. 16. Tavernier M.
Coaches
Farke D.	Iraola A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', Jimenez A. 🟨,
26', 0 - 1, Semenyo A. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Rodon J. ⚽, Longstaff S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 2 - 1, Longstaff S. ⚽,
60', Christie R. ↓, Scott A. ↑,
60', Kluivert J. ↓, Tavernier M. ↑,
60', Adli A. ↓, Brooks D. ↑,
67', Okafor N. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
70', Aaronson B. 🟨,
73', Jimenez A. ↓, Doak B. ↑,
81', Adams T. ↓, Kroupi E. J. ↑,
87', Aaronson B. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
90+2', Ampadu E. 🟨,
90+2', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Kroupi E. J. ⚽, Senesi M. (A),
90+3', Kroupi E. J. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 3.

Leeds is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Bournemouth is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Leeds has had a series of away games.

Recently, Bournemouth has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Leeds: Gnonto W. (Calf Injury) Lucas Perri (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bournemouth: Smith A. (Hamstring Injury) Soler J. (International duty) Unal E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: James D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Bournemouth: Cook L. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 2:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 2.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
20.09.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Fulham - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Sheffield Wednesday - Leeds United	2:1 penalties ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Arsenal - Leeds United	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLTLL
- AFC Bournemouth
English Premier League
21.09.25	Bournemouth - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Bournemouth - Brighton & Hove Albion	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Tottenham Hotspur - Bournemouth	0:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Bournemouth - Brentford	0:2 ✺
English Premier League
23.08.25	Bournemouth - Wolverhampton Wanderers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.04.23	Bournemouth - Leeds United	4:1
05.11.22	Leeds United - Bournemouth	4:3
English League Championship
20.01.15	Leeds United - Bournemouth	1:0
16.09.14	Bournemouth - Leeds United	1:3
25.03.14	Bournemouth - Leeds United	4:1
01.10.13	Leeds United - Bournemouth	2:1

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