Match Info

Premier League - Round 9

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday

Location: Elland Road (Leeds)

Referee: Attwell S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
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World	Sport 24


	Leeds United		West Ham United

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.6	4.5
	1.82	3.75	4.5
	1.77	3.85	4.84
	1.01	14.78	100.00	Watch
	1.93	3.68	4.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.03)	5.93 ↑ (3.6)	23.6 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leeds United
74%

Draw
20.8%

West Ham United
5.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47%

26.6%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

25.5%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Leeds United's performance.

West Ham United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-21.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and West Ham United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-28.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Leeds United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for West Ham United than the current prediction. (+22.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that West Ham United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.5%	10.6%	14.9%

Leeds United - West Ham United Predictions

Users Predictions: 93 users predict this event. Leeds will win (votes: 70 - 75.3%). West Ham will win (votes: 14 - 15.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 9.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 66.5% – 84.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - draw (1.91) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - West Ham (3.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.5 - West Ham (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Leeds United will win (39 of 45 users predict this - 86.67%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 47 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 39 - 83%). West Ham (votes: 6 - 12.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 4.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Perri (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 15. Bijol J. 3. Gudmundsson G. 8. Longstaff S. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 22. Tanaka A. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 19. Okafor N.	23. Areola A. (G) 3. Kilman M. 25. Todibo J. 29. Wan-Bissaka A. 30. Scarles O. 28. Soucek T. 39. Irving A. 12. Diouf M. 20. Bowen J. (C) 10. Lucas Paqueta 7. Summerville C.
Substitutes
26. Darlow K. (G) 44. Gruev I. 20. Harrison J. 7. James D. 24. Justin J. 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 18. Stach A. 5. Struijk P.	18. Fernandes M. 1. Hermansen M. (G) 5. Igor 27. Magassa S. 50. Marshall C. 32. Potts F. 24. Rodriguez G. 2. Walker-Peters K. 9. Wilson C.
Coaches
Farke D.	Espirito Santo N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Aaronson B. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Rodon J. ⚽, Longstaff S. (A),
25', Scarles O. ↓, Wilson C. ↑,
40', Summerville C. 🟨,
44', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Justin J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Okafor N. ↓, Harrison J. ↑,
55', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
64', Irving A. ↓, Potts F. ↑,
65', Soucek T. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
72', Tanaka A. ↓, Gruev I. ↑,
76', Gruev I. 🟨,
79', Summerville C. ↓, Magassa S. ↑,
79', Wan-Bissaka A. ↓, Walker-Peters K. ↑,
84', Lucas Perri 🟨,
87', Aaronson B. ↓, James D. ↑,
87', Calvert-Lewin D. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
90', 2 - 1, Fernandes M. ⚽, Bowen J. (A),
90+2', Todibo J. 🟨,
90+3', Justin J. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1.

Leeds is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

West Ham has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Leeds is the team to beat.

There will not play in Leeds: Gray H. (Hip Injury)

There will not play in West Ham: Earthy G. (Hamstring Injury) Fullkrug N. (Thigh Injury) Mavropanos K. (Injury)

There are questionable in Leeds: Ampadu E. (Illness) Gnonto W. (Hernia) Okafor N. (Muscle Injury) Struijk P. (Illness)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Leeds won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:16. (average 1.1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Leeds won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 1.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Leeds United
English Premier League
18.10.25	Burnley - Leeds United	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Leeds United - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Leeds United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Fulham - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLTWL
- West Ham United
English Premier League
20.10.25	West Ham United - Brentford	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Arsenal - West Ham United	2:0 ✺
29.09.25	Everton - West Ham United	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	West Ham United - Crystal Palace	1:2 ✺
13.09.25	West Ham United - Tottenham Hotspur	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
21.05.23	West Ham United - Leeds United	3:1
04.01.23	Leeds United - West Ham United	2:2
16.01.22	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:3
English FA Cup
09.01.22	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:0
English Premier League
25.09.21	Leeds United - West Ham United	1:2
08.03.21	West Ham United - Leeds United	2:0
11.12.20	Leeds United - West Ham United	1:2

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