Match Info

Premier League - Round 8

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Turf Moor (Burnley) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Robinson T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action
Albania	16:00	SuperSport 4
Argentina	11:00	Disney+
Armenia	18:00	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	01:00	Stan Sport
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Bulgaria	17:00	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	10:00	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 5 DRM
Chile	11:00	Disney+
China	22:00	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	09:00	Disney+
Croatia	16:00	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Czech Republic	16:00	CANAL+ Sport 6, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Europe	—	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	17:00	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	16:00	Canal+ Live 10
Greece	17:00	Nova Sports 4
Hong Kong	22:00	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Premier League 5
Iceland	14:00	SÝN Sport 5
India	19:30	Disney+ Hotstar
Indonesia	21:00	Vidio
Italy	16:00	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258
Japan	23:00	U-NEXT
Kenya	17:00	Gotv
Malaysia	22:00	Astro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Sooka
Malta	16:00	GO TV, TSN Malta 6
Mexico	08:00	Amazon Prime Video, HBO Max
Nepal	19:45	Kantipur Max
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:00	Sky Sport 3
Nigeria	15:00	SuperSport Action
North Macedonia	16:00	MaxTV GO
Norway	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 4
Peru	09:00	Disney+
Portugal	15:00	DAZN / App
Romania	17:00	Voyo
Serbia	16:00	Arena Sport 5
Slovakia	16:00	Voyo
Slovenia	16:00	Arena Sport 2
South Africa	16:00	SuperSport Action
South Korea	23:00	Coupang Play
Spain	16:00	DAZN Espana
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Thailand	21:00	AIS PLAY
Turkey	17:00	beIN Connect
Uruguay	11:00	Disney+
Usa	10:00	Peacock TV Premium, Peacock TV
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+


	Burnley		Leeds United

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.25	2.15
	3.35	3.25	2.28
	3.61	3.3	2.25
	3.27	3.30	2.26	Watch
	3.41	3.37	2.35	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.41 ↑ (3.27)	3.29 ↓ (3.3)	2.26 (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burnley
28.2%

Draw
29.2%

Leeds United
42.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.1%

28.8%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

29.1%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Leeds United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leeds United than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	28.9%	39.5%

Burnley - Leeds United Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Burnley will win (votes: 12 - 32.4%). Leeds will win (votes: 15 - 40.5%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 27%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leeds: 24.7% – 56.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Leeds (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Burnley (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Burnley (votes: 1 - 25%). Leeds (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dubravka M. (G) 2. Walker K. 6. Tuanzebe A. 5. Esteve M. 3. Hartman Q. 8. Ugochukwu L. 16. Florentino 7. Bruun Larsen J. 24. Cullen J. (C) 11. Anthony J. 19. Flemming Z.	26. Darlow K. (G) 2. Bogle J. 6. Rodon J. 5. Struijk P. 3. Gudmundsson G. 8. Longstaff S. 4. Ampadu E. (C) 18. Stach A. 11. Aaronson B. 9. Calvert-Lewin D. 20. Harrison J.
Substitutes
35. Barnes A. 27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 18. Ekdal H. 29. Laurent J. 23. Lucas Pires 28. Mejbri H. 17. Tchaouna L. 13. Weiss M. (G)	15. Bijol J. 23. Bornauw S. 44. Gruev I. 7. James D. 24. Justin J. 1. Lucas Perri (G) 14. Nmecha L. 10. Piroe J. 22. Tanaka A.
Coaches
Parker S.	Farke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Ugochukwu L. ⚽, Walker K. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Anthony J. 🟨,
58', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Tchaouna L. ↑,
66', Aaronson B. ↓, James D. ↑,
66', Harrison J. ↓, Nmecha L. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Tchaouna L. ⚽, Florentino (A),
73', Stach A. ↓, Piroe J. ↑,
77', Flemming Z. ↓, Laurent J. ↑,
81', Ampadu E. ↓, Tanaka A. ↑,
83', Ugochukwu L. ↓, Mejbri H. ↑,
83', Anthony J. ↓, Barnes A. ↑,
90+2', Mejbri H. 🟨,
90+2', Struijk P. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 1.

Burnley is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Leeds has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leeds might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Leeds: Gray H. (Hip Injury) James D. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Burnley: Foster L. (Knock)

There are questionable in Leeds: Gnonto W. (Calf Injury) Okafor N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Burnley won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 0.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Burnley won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burnley FC
English Premier League
05.10.25	Aston Villa - Burnley	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Manchester City - Burnley	5:1 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Burnley - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
English Premier League
20.09.25	Burnley - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Burnley - Liverpool	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLTL
- Leeds United
English Premier League
04.10.25	Leeds United - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Leeds United - Bournemouth	2:2 ✺
20.09.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Leeds United	1:3 ✺
13.09.25	Fulham - Leeds United	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Leeds United - Newcastle United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
27.01.25	Burnley - Leeds United	0:0
14.09.24	Leeds United - Burnley	0:1
English Premier League
02.01.22	Leeds United - Burnley	3:1
29.08.21	Burnley - Leeds United	1:1
15.05.21	Burnley - Leeds United	0:4
27.12.20	Leeds United - Burnley	1:0
English League Cup
19.09.17	Burnley - Leeds United	2:3 penalties

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