Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 16

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 3
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Legia Warsaw		Lechia Gdańsk

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	5.75	Watch
	1.5	4.25	5.7	Watch
	1.56	4.26	5.49
	1.56	4.28	5.45	Watch
	1.54	4.1	5.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.56)	4.14 ↓ (4.28)	5.59 ↑ (5.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
60.7%

Draw
22.6%

Lechia Gdańsk
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

22.1%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

21.2%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Lechia Gdańsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk Predictions

Users Predictions: Legia Warsaw will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 91. Piatkowski K. 3. Kapuadi S. 23. Kun P. 44. Szymanski D. 11. Chodyna K. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 5. Goncalves C. 77. Krasniqi E. 29. Rajovic M.	1. Weirauch S. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 10. Kapic R. (C) 5. Zhelizko I. 11. Mena C. 99. Neugebauer T. 79. Sezonienko K. 89. Bobcek T.
Substitutes
81. Arreiol H. 8. Augustyniak R. 21. Bichakhchyan V. 4. Burch M. 14. Colak A. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 30. Stojanovic P. 53. Urbanski W. 19. Vinagre R. 99. Weisshaupt N.	72. Awad M. 8. Cirkovic A. 21. Glogowski M. 44. Kaczorowski M. (G) 23. Kalahur M. 90. Kurminowski D. 3. Olsson E. 4. Pllana B. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B.
Coaches
Astiz I.	Carver J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', Kun P. 🟨,
42', 0 - 1, Zhelizko I. ⚽, Bobcek T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Kapustka B. ⚽, Goncalves C. (A),
58', Neugebauer T. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
70', Sezonienko K. ↓, Cirkovic A. ↑,
75', Goncalves C. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Cirkovic A. ⚽, Bobcek T. (A),
82', Chodyna K. 🟨,
85', Szymanski D. ↓, Augustyniak R. ↑,
85', Chodyna K. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
85', Kun P. ↓, Vinagre R. ↑,
87', Krasniqi E. 🟨,
89', Augustyniak R. 🟨,
89', Bobcek T. ↓, Pllana B. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 2, Urbanski W. ⚽, Kapustka B. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 11 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Legia won 3.

Legia is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Lechia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Legia is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Elitim J. (Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Reca A. (Injury) Urbanski K. (Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Lechia: Jaunzems A. (Muscle Injury) Sarnavskyi B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Legia won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 32:17. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:9. (average 1.7:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 1.56 are the expected chance of winning is 60.58%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
09.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Celje - Legia Warsaw	2:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.11.25	Widzew Łódź - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLTLT
- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Ekstraklasa
08.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:2 ✺
Polish Cup
29.10.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3 ET ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Raków Częstochowa - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1 ✺
19.10.25	Piast Gliwice - Lechia Gdańsk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
21.04.25	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
18.10.24	Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw	0:2
Club Friendly
06.07.24	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
24.06.23	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	3:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.05.23	Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw	1:0
Polish Cup
08.11.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Legia Warsaw	2:3 penalties
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.11.22	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1

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