Match Info

Date: 7 April 2021, Wednesday


	Libertad Asuncion		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.3
	2.28	3.1	3.2	Watch
	2.22	3	3.15
	2.31	3.11	3.45
	2.38	3	3.25	Watch
	2.09	3.24	3.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.34)	3.08 ↓ (3.09)	3.31 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Libertad Asuncion
41.4%

Draw
30.4%

Atlético Nacional
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

30.1%

30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

20.6%

44.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Libertad Asuncion that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (+16%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Recent matches Libertad is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Nacional is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Libertad could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Libertad have a series of home games.

Libertad will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Libertad won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Libertad won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Libertad Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.04.21	Libertad Asuncion - Olimpia Asuncion	0:1 ✺
28.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1 ✺
22.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
17.03.21	Libertad Asuncion - Universidad Católica	2:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
13.03.21	Sol de América - Libertad Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTWTW
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
03.04.21	Atlético Nacional - Envigado	3:0 ✺
30.03.21	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	2:1 ✺
27.03.21	Independiente Medellín - Atlético Nacional	0:0 ✺
24.03.21	Atlético Nacional - Jaguares de Córdoba	3:1 ✺
21.03.21	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
28.02.19	Atlético Nacional - Libertad Asuncion	1:1 penalties
21.02.19	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	1:0
21.04.15	Atlético Nacional - Libertad Asuncion	4:0
19.02.15	Libertad Asuncion - Atlético Nacional	2:2

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