Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 17

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: La Arboleda (Asunción)

Referee: Mendez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Rubio Ñu		Libertad Asuncion

	1	X	2
	4	3.1	1.83	Watch
	4.45	3.3	1.75	Watch
	4.44	3.5	1.87
	4.25	3.53	1.83	Watch
	4.5	3.2	1.7
	4.26	3.37	1.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.32 ↓ (4.73)	3.33 ↓ (3.43)	1.81 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rubio Ñu
21.3%

Draw
27.6%

Libertad Asuncion
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.7%

27.2%

53%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

23.8%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rubio Ñu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Libertad Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rubio Ñu than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	20%	80%

Rubio Ñu - Libertad Asuncion Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Rubio Ñu (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Libertad Asuncion will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rubio Ñu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Fragueda F. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 31. Blasi B. 3. Vallejos J. 13. Cabanas V. 36. Gimenez C. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. (C) 8. Rojas R. 20. Martinez F. 35. Montiel L. 40. Perez E.	25. Gonzalez A. (G) 5. Viera D. 3. Rojas R. 31. Fernandez T. 17. Espinoza Acosta M. D. 34. Villalba E. 6. Campuzano A. 21. Sanabria L. 14. Fretes A. 8. Carrizo F. 19. Recalde J.
Substitutes
29. Alfonso O. 5. Alvarez Benitez P. 30. Ayala P. 1. Canteros T. (G) 11. Gimenez Delgado J. J. 4. Gonzalez J. 28. Leguizamon A. 38. Manzur G. 10. Mendieta W. 37. Roldan M. 23. Ruiz Diaz S. 18. Villagra C.	11. Aguilar G. 13. Bogarin J. 26. Caballero H. 32. Delvalle S. 18. Franco I. 4. Gimenez N. 33. Martinez C. 27. Molinas A. 12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Ramirez I. 7. Rojas M. 24. Villalba R.
Coaches
Gimenez F.	Arce F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Montiel L. ⚽, Martinez F. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Perez E. (Penalty Awarded),
38', 3 - 0, Gimenez C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Carrizo F. ↓, Villalba R. ↑,
46', Fretes A. ↓, Aguilar G. ↑,
46', Sanabria L. ↓, Molinas A. ↑,
46', Rojas R. ↓, Franco I. ↑,
59', Montiel L. ↓, Villagra C. ↑,
62', Campuzano A. ↓, Caballero H. ↑,
63', Rojas R. ↓, Mendieta W. ↑,
69', Recalde J. ↓, Rojas M. ↑,
74', Perez E. ↓, Manzur G. ↑,
74', Ferreira R. ↓, Ayala P. ↑,
81', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Alfonso O. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rubio Ñu won 1.

Rubio Ñu is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Libertad's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Libertad is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rubio Ñu won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 17:33. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Rubio Ñu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Libertad Asuncion	13	8	2	3	21:14	7	26
10	Rubio Nu	13	3	3	7	15:24	-9	12

Last Results with these Odds

Libertad Asuncion - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 53.04%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rubio Ñu
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Rubio Ñu - Olimpia Asuncion	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Rubio Ñu	4:0 ✺
01.04.26	Rubio Ñu - Guaraní Asuncion	0:2 ✺
26.03.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Rubio Ñu	1:0 ✺
23.03.26	Rubio Ñu - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Libertad Asuncion
Copa Libertadores
15.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rosario Central	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.04.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Trinidense	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.04.26	Universidad Central - Libertad Asuncion	3:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
30.03.26	Libertad Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
20.02.26	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:1
09.11.17	Rubio Ñu - Libertad Asuncion	2:4
22.07.17	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	0:0
08.05.17	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	1:1
24.02.17	Rubio Ñu - Libertad Asuncion	0:0
09.12.16	Rubio Ñu - Libertad Asuncion	0:1
11.09.16	Libertad Asuncion - Rubio Ñu	2:1

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